San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees

May 5, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (13 edges vs 7 for San Diego Padres).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans San Diego Padres

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.

New York Yankees 0.550 vs San Diego Padres 0.600 — roughly even
New York Yankees 1.70 vs San Diego Padres 1.20 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.60 vs San Diego Padres 3.80 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 2.90 vs San Diego Padres 2.60 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 0.333 vs San Diego Padres 1 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 0.725 vs San Diego Padres 1.316 — leans San Diego Padres

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.34 vs San Diego Padres 4.03 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.86 vs San Diego Padres 2.88 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 0.600 vs San Diego Padres 0.556 — roughly even
New York Yankees 111.1 vs San Diego Padres 99.8 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans San Diego Padres

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.

New York Yankees 3.23 vs San Diego Padres 2.22 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 0.91 vs San Diego Padres 0.99 — roughly even
New York Yankees 11.74 vs San Diego Padres 11.12 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.68 vs San Diego Padres -0.38 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 2.28 vs San Diego Padres 2.25 — roughly even
New York Yankees 1.23 vs San Diego Padres 1 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 2.13 vs San Diego Padres 3.35 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 19 vs San Diego Padres 19.7 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.404 vs San Diego Padres 0.368 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.527 vs San Diego Padres 0.442 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.385 vs San Diego Padres 0.367 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.559 vs San Diego Padres 0.419 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.428 vs San Diego Padres 0.376 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.604 vs San Diego Padres 0.414 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.782 vs San Diego Padres 0.776 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.024 vs San Diego Padres 0.008 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between San Diego Padres and New York Yankees does not clearly favor either side.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs San Diego Padres 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0 vs San Diego Padres 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (BetOnline.ag)

Final Score

San Diego Padres 4, New York Yankees 3 — San Diego Padres win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.