← All picks for May 5, 2025
New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks
May 5, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans New York Mets
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (12 edges vs 11 for Arizona Diamondbacks).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed
Recent form factors are roughly even between New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.550 vs New York Mets 0.550 — roughly even
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0 vs New York Mets 1.60 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5.20 vs New York Mets 5.10 — roughly even
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5.20 vs New York Mets 3.50 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.333 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.962 vs New York Mets 0.588 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Season to date — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5.18 vs New York Mets 4.67 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5 vs New York Mets 3.11 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.300 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 105.6 vs New York Mets 102.6 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5.65 vs New York Mets 2.39 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 1.40 vs New York Mets 1.41 — roughly even
- Arizona Diamondbacks 9.42 vs New York Mets 9.23 — roughly even
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5.57 vs New York Mets 2.32 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 3.86 vs New York Mets 3.20 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 1.38 vs New York Mets 1.22 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 6.62 vs New York Mets 3.10 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 17 vs New York Mets 25.3 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Offense & matchup — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.380 vs New York Mets 0.422 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.508 vs New York Mets 0.530 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.375 vs New York Mets 0.462 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.518 vs New York Mets 0.491 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.429 vs New York Mets 0.401 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.556 vs New York Mets 0.511 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.818 vs New York Mets 0.441 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.049 vs New York Mets -0.021 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Series & head-to-head — Mixed
Head-to-head history between New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks does not clearly favor either side.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks -0.67 vs New York Mets 0.67 — leans New York Mets
Betting Lines
New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
New York Mets 5, Arizona Diamondbacks 4 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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