Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees

May 4, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (19 edges vs 5 for Tampa Bay Rays).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.550 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.450 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.75 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.10 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.55 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.75 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 2.80 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.65 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.333 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.333 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.659 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.444 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.35 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.76 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.76 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.73 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.600 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.750 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees 111.2 vs Tampa Bay Rays 92.7 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

New York Yankees 6.16 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.91 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees 1.53 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.43 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees 10.42 vs Tampa Bay Rays 6.75 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees -1.16 vs Tampa Bay Rays -1.69 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees 1.54 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.42 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.86 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.21 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.69 vs Tampa Bay Rays 2.94 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 19.3 vs Tampa Bay Rays 15 — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.404 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.353 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.536 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.395 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.366 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.334 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.603 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.412 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.408 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.342 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.573 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.372 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.800 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.788 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.004 vs Tampa Bay Rays -0.011 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.667 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.333 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.33 vs Tampa Bay Rays -1.33 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Tampa Bay Rays 7, New York Yankees 5 — Tampa Bay Rays win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.