New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals

May 4, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (19 edges vs 5 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.350 vs New York Mets 0.650 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals -0.40 vs New York Mets 2.30 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 3.40 vs New York Mets 5.30 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 3.80 vs New York Mets 3 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.392 vs New York Mets 0.692 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.17 vs New York Mets 4.68 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 4.28 vs New York Mets 2.97 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 101.0 vs New York Mets 102.8 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

St. Louis Cardinals 5.40 vs New York Mets 4.25 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 1.57 vs New York Mets 1.28 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 5.06 vs New York Mets 8.60 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals -0.89 vs New York Mets 0 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 3.25 vs New York Mets 4.85 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.98 vs New York Mets 1.35 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 3.50 vs New York Mets 3.87 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 29.7 vs New York Mets 26 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.368 vs New York Mets 0.406 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.435 vs New York Mets 0.542 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.372 vs New York Mets 0.457 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.528 vs New York Mets 0.622 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.393 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.468 vs New York Mets 0.513 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.569 vs New York Mets 0.569 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.033 vs New York Mets -0.013 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs New York Mets 1 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals -2.67 vs New York Mets 2.67 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (BetOnline.ag)

Final Score

New York Mets 5, St. Louis Cardinals 6 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.