Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers

May 4, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Chicago Cubs

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Chicago Cubs (21 edges vs 5 for Milwaukee Brewers).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Chicago Cubs

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Milwaukee Brewers 0.400 vs Chicago Cubs 0.600 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 0.05 vs Chicago Cubs 1.70 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 4.30 vs Chicago Cubs 5.70 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 4.25 vs Chicago Cubs 4 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 0 vs Chicago Cubs 1 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 0.155 vs Chicago Cubs 1.404 — leans Chicago Cubs

Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Milwaukee Brewers 4.74 vs Chicago Cubs 6.12 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 4.68 vs Chicago Cubs 4.18 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.636 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 93.4 vs Chicago Cubs 107.8 — leans Chicago Cubs

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Chicago Cubs

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Milwaukee Brewers 2.73 vs Chicago Cubs 3.54 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 1.33 vs Chicago Cubs 1.25 — roughly even
Milwaukee Brewers 8.54 vs Chicago Cubs 7.71 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers -0.85 vs Chicago Cubs 0.39 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 4.71 vs Chicago Cubs 0.95 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 1.36 vs Chicago Cubs 1 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 4.81 vs Chicago Cubs 3.36 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 24.7 vs Chicago Cubs 16 — leans Chicago Cubs

Offense & matchup — leans Chicago Cubs

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Milwaukee Brewers 0.370 vs Chicago Cubs 0.377 — roughly even
Milwaukee Brewers 0.397 vs Chicago Cubs 0.559 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 0.426 vs Chicago Cubs 0.373 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 0.405 vs Chicago Cubs 0.478 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 0.390 vs Chicago Cubs 0.407 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 0.469 vs Chicago Cubs 0.569 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers 0.951 vs Chicago Cubs 0.684 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 0.020 vs Chicago Cubs 0.030 — leans Chicago Cubs

Series & head-to-head — leans Chicago Cubs

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Milwaukee Brewers 0 vs Chicago Cubs 1 — leans Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers -7 vs Chicago Cubs 7 — leans Chicago Cubs

Betting Lines

Chicago Cubs +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Chicago Cubs 0, Milwaukee Brewers 4 — Milwaukee Brewers win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.