New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals

May 3, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (15 edges vs 9 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.650 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals -0.05 vs New York Mets 2.20 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 3.75 vs New York Mets 5.35 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 3.80 vs New York Mets 3.15 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.333 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 1.156 vs New York Mets 0.872 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.29 vs New York Mets 4.82 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 4.40 vs New York Mets 3.06 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.625 vs New York Mets 0.500 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 101.0 vs New York Mets 102.8 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.23 vs New York Mets 1.73 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 1.30 vs New York Mets 1.19 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 5.53 vs New York Mets 11.42 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals -3.86 vs New York Mets -2.07 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 2.78 vs New York Mets 5.88 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.97 vs New York Mets 1.58 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 3.50 vs New York Mets 4.33 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 22.7 vs New York Mets 22 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.368 vs New York Mets 0.406 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.435 vs New York Mets 0.542 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.372 vs New York Mets 0.457 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.528 vs New York Mets 0.622 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals 0.407 vs New York Mets 0.395 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.504 vs New York Mets 0.501 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.539 vs New York Mets 0.441 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.039 vs New York Mets -0.011 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs New York Mets 1 — leans New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals -3.20 vs New York Mets 3.20 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (BetOnline.ag)

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.