Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets

May 1, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (13 edges vs 9 for Arizona Diamondbacks).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.650 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.550 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.80 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.05 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 5.15 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.95 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.35 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.90 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.667 — roughly even
New York Mets 1.942 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.875 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.77 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.23 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets 3.03 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.97 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.800 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.625 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 101.5 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 106.0 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

New York Mets 1.26 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.08 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.05 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 1.31 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 7.85 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 9.85 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets 1.38 vs Arizona Diamondbacks -0.54 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets 6.46 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.56 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets 1.77 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 1.76 — roughly even
New York Mets 3.35 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.31 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 23.7 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 22.7 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.

New York Mets 0.391 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.379 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.516 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.509 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.424 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.363 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.539 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.537 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.379 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.408 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets 0.516 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.585 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets 0.690 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.824 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets -0.011 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.029 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.500 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.500 — roughly even
New York Mets 2 vs Arizona Diamondbacks -2 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Arizona Diamondbacks 4, New York Mets 2 — Arizona Diamondbacks win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.