St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds

May 1, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (14 edges vs 11 for Cincinnati Reds).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

Cincinnati Reds 0.550 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.450 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 1.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.60 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 5.60 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.70 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 4.35 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.10 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0.060 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.351 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — leans Cincinnati Reds

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 4.81 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.42 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 3.91 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.12 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.273 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 96.6 vs St. Louis Cardinals 103.3 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Cincinnati Reds 3.71 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.19 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 1.16 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.97 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 10.12 vs St. Louis Cardinals 8.13 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 2.34 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.95 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 5.23 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.31 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 1.11 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.73 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 6.87 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.39 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 25.7 vs St. Louis Cardinals 23.7 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Offense & matchup — leans Cincinnati Reds

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 0.406 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.373 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.484 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.439 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.391 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.408 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0.443 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.449 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.413 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.412 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.491 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.497 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.922 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.625 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.006 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.038 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Cincinnati Reds 0.250 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.750 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds -3 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Lines

St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 1, Cincinnati Reds 9 — Cincinnati Reds win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.