Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets

April 29, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (17 edges vs 6 for Arizona Diamondbacks).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.700 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.500 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.95 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.15 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 5.20 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.95 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.25 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.80 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.795 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 1.010 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.72 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.36 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets 3 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.93 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.900 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.500 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 100.2 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 94.0 — leans New York Mets

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 3.29 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.40 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.43 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 1.29 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets 9.22 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 10.67 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets -2.25 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.76 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 5.06 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.48 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.83 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 1.91 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.22 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.45 — roughly even
New York Mets 17.3 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 23 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.394 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.386 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.506 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.511 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.425 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.379 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.442 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.348 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.393 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.406 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets 0.492 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.515 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets 1.049 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.927 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -0.001 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.021 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets does not clearly favor either side.

New York Mets 0.500 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.500 — roughly even
New York Mets 0 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Arizona Diamondbacks 3, New York Mets 8 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.