New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles

April 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (19 edges vs 6 for Baltimore Orioles).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Baltimore Orioles 0.300 vs New York Yankees 0.550 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles -2.10 vs New York Yankees 0.55 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 3.10 vs New York Yankees 3.95 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 5.20 vs New York Yankees 3.40 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 0 vs New York Yankees 0.667 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 0.538 vs New York Yankees 1.350 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Baltimore Orioles 3.72 vs New York Yankees 5.34 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 5.07 vs New York Yankees 3.90 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 0.444 vs New York Yankees 0.500 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 93.2 vs New York Yankees 107.8 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Baltimore Orioles 3.54 vs New York Yankees 4.79 — leans Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles 1.14 vs New York Yankees 1.26 — leans Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles 2.89 vs New York Yankees 9.15 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 0 vs New York Yankees 4.24 — leans Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles 6.65 vs New York Yankees 2.70 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 1.85 vs New York Yankees 1.05 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 5.41 vs New York Yankees 2.35 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 24.3 vs New York Yankees 20 — leans New York Yankees

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Baltimore Orioles 0.329 vs New York Yankees 0.396 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 0.412 vs New York Yankees 0.469 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 0.438 vs New York Yankees 0.441 — roughly even
Baltimore Orioles 0.592 vs New York Yankees 0.558 — leans Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles 0.375 vs New York Yankees 0.419 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 0.478 vs New York Yankees 0.570 — leans New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles 0.835 vs New York Yankees 0.782 — leans Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles 0.046 vs New York Yankees 0.023 — leans Baltimore Orioles

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles does not clearly favor either side.

Baltimore Orioles 0.500 vs New York Yankees 0.500 — roughly even
Baltimore Orioles 0 vs New York Yankees 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 3, Baltimore Orioles 4 — Baltimore Orioles win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.