← All picks for April 28, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds
April 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Cincinnati Reds (15 edges vs 6 for St. Louis Cardinals).
Note: the model leans St. Louis Cardinals even though the simple edge count favors Cincinnati Reds. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Cincinnati Reds
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.
- Cincinnati Reds 0.650 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 1.90 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.70 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 6.20 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.75 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 4.30 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.45 — roughly even
- Cincinnati Reds 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 1.183 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.889 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Season to date — leans Cincinnati Reds
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.
- Cincinnati Reds 5.36 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.48 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 3.89 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.55 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 0.667 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.182 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 98.9 vs St. Louis Cardinals 102.0 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Cincinnati Reds
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.
- Cincinnati Reds 5.40 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.05 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Cincinnati Reds 1.39 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.28 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Cincinnati Reds 7.76 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.40 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds -1.21 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.24 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 4.58 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.50 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 1.36 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.33 — roughly even
- Cincinnati Reds 4.68 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.54 — roughly even
- Cincinnati Reds 15.3 vs St. Louis Cardinals 16 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Cincinnati Reds
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.
- Cincinnati Reds 0.417 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.378 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 0.506 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.423 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 0.393 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.426 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Cincinnati Reds 0.504 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.509 — roughly even
- Cincinnati Reds 0.412 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.397 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 0.522 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.476 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Cincinnati Reds 0.435 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.551 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Cincinnati Reds -0.005 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.019 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Series & head-to-head — Mixed
Head-to-head history between St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds does not clearly favor either side.
- Cincinnati Reds 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 — roughly even
- Cincinnati Reds 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — roughly even
Betting Lines
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
St. Louis Cardinals 1, Cincinnati Reds 3 — Cincinnati Reds win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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