← All picks for April 25, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals
April 25, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Milwaukee Brewers (12 edges vs 10 for St. Louis Cardinals).
Note: the model leans St. Louis Cardinals even though the simple edge count favors Milwaukee Brewers. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.300 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.550 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals -0.75 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.95 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals 3.90 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.45 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals 4.65 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.50 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.333 — roughly even
- St. Louis Cardinals 1.453 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.101 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Season to date — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- St. Louis Cardinals 4.62 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.08 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals 4.54 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.58 — roughly even
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.400 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- St. Louis Cardinals 102.0 vs Milwaukee Brewers 96.7 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.
- St. Louis Cardinals 3.19 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.82 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.97 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.26 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- St. Louis Cardinals 8.13 vs Milwaukee Brewers 7.66 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- St. Louis Cardinals 3.95 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals 9.60 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.43 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals 1.73 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.33 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals 5.57 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.33 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals 10.7 vs Milwaukee Brewers 17 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.380 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.388 — roughly even
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.439 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.467 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.426 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.404 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.509 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.408 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.397 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.377 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.478 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.484 — roughly even
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.551 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.765 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.017 vs Milwaukee Brewers -0.012 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Series & head-to-head — Mixed
Head-to-head history between Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals does not clearly favor either side.
- St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.500 — roughly even
- St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0 — roughly even
Betting Lines
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Milwaukee Brewers 2, St. Louis Cardinals 3 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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