Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

April 23, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (16 edges vs 9 for Philadelphia Phillies).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.750 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.50 vs Philadelphia Phillies -0.65 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.30 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.15 — roughly even
New York Mets 2.80 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.80 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.318 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.803 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.21 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.50 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 2.75 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.62 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.917 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.250 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 99.5 vs Philadelphia Phillies 109.4 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

New York Mets 2.48 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.73 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.17 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.99 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 10.55 vs Philadelphia Phillies 11.78 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets -0.14 vs Philadelphia Phillies -3.54 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 3.48 vs Philadelphia Phillies 8.24 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.02 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.73 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.54 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.95 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 20.7 vs Philadelphia Phillies 19.7 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.368 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.392 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.481 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.419 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.399 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.354 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.597 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.367 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.380 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.401 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.480 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.484 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.447 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.557 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.011 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.010 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 1 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.50 vs Philadelphia Phillies -2.50 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 3, New York Mets 4 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.