Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

April 22, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (13 edges vs 12 for Philadelphia Phillies).

Note: the model leans Philadelphia Phillies even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.750 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.550 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.60 vs Philadelphia Phillies -0.20 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.55 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.40 — roughly even
New York Mets 2.95 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.60 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.099 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.515 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.17 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.65 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 2.83 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.61 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.909 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.286 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 99.5 vs Philadelphia Phillies 111.4 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 3.46 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.41 — roughly even
New York Mets 1.31 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.17 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 8.65 vs Philadelphia Phillies 10.86 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 1.28 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.28 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 4.01 vs Philadelphia Phillies 9.87 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.18 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.96 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.82 vs Philadelphia Phillies 6.85 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 24.7 vs Philadelphia Phillies 17.3 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Offense & matchup — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 0.367 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.393 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.504 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.446 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.352 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.452 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.432 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.496 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.379 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.412 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.477 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.482 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.916 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.569 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.012 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.019 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 1 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs Philadelphia Phillies -1 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 1, New York Mets 5 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.