Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

April 21, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (13 edges vs 10 for Philadelphia Phillies).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.700 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.550 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.50 vs Philadelphia Phillies -0.35 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.35 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.25 — roughly even
New York Mets 2.85 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.60 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.149 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.804 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.14 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.68 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 2.77 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.59 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.900 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.286 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 99.0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 113.2 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 2.16 vs Philadelphia Phillies 6.41 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.44 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.69 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 10.08 vs Philadelphia Phillies 10.80 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 1.81 vs Philadelphia Phillies -0.55 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 3.38 vs Philadelphia Phillies 8.84 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.17 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.86 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.89 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.69 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 24 vs Philadelphia Phillies 19.3 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Offense & matchup — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 0.358 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.395 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.474 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.441 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.382 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.471 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.567 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.565 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.369 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.401 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.483 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.486 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.563 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.678 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.012 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.006 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets does not clearly favor either side.

New York Mets 0.500 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — roughly even
New York Mets 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 4, New York Mets 5 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.