St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets

April 20, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (17 edges vs 8 for St. Louis Cardinals).

Note: the model leans St. Louis Cardinals even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.700 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.350 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.45 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.15 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.15 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.45 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 2.70 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.60 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.964 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.375 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.50 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 2.71 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.36 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.889 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.100 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 98.5 vs St. Louis Cardinals 97.8 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 3.48 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.77 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.40 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.94 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 12.63 vs St. Louis Cardinals 9.73 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -0.90 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.78 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.16 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.02 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.21 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.90 vs St. Louis Cardinals 7.06 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 15.7 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

New York Mets 0.351 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.396 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.464 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.478 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.359 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.331 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.538 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.370 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.360 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.414 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.473 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.542 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.702 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.008 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.019 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.33 vs St. Louis Cardinals -2.33 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 4, New York Mets 7 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.