St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets

April 19, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (15 edges vs 7 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.650 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.20 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.20 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.05 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.70 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 2.85 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.50 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.988 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.638 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.05 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.71 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 2.85 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.43 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.875 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.111 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 98.9 vs St. Louis Cardinals 98.5 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 1.61 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.54 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.90 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.03 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 10.07 vs St. Louis Cardinals 9.30 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.07 — roughly even
New York Mets 2.28 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.12 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.97 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.98 — roughly even
New York Mets 2.51 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.81 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 23.7 vs St. Louis Cardinals 17.3 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

New York Mets 0.356 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.401 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.453 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.499 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.354 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.360 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.398 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.404 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.377 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.419 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.498 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.529 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.782 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.021 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.018 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2 vs St. Louis Cardinals -2 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 0, New York Mets 3 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.