New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

April 17, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Tampa Bay Rays

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (14 edges vs 9 for Tampa Bay Rays).

Note: the model leans Tampa Bay Rays even though the simple edge count favors New York Yankees. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays 0.444 vs New York Yankees 0.611 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.78 vs New York Yankees 1.33 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 4.50 vs New York Yankees 5.94 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 3.72 vs New York Yankees 4.61 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.333 vs New York Yankees 1 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 1.481 vs New York Yankees 0.673 — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays 4.50 vs New York Yankees 5.94 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 3.72 vs New York Yankees 4.61 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.533 vs New York Yankees 0.500 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays 44.5 vs New York Yankees 88.7 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays 2.57 vs New York Yankees 7.11 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 1.07 vs New York Yankees 1.42 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 10.29 vs New York Yankees 9.95 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays -1.95 vs New York Yankees 8.36 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 3.60 vs New York Yankees 1.64 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 1.45 vs New York Yankees 1.18 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 6.25 vs New York Yankees 2.87 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 20 vs New York Yankees 22 — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays 0.389 vs New York Yankees 0.406 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.475 vs New York Yankees 0.549 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.428 vs New York Yankees 0.401 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.583 vs New York Yankees 0.510 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 0.383 vs New York Yankees 0.458 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.455 vs New York Yankees 0.722 — leans New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays 0.649 vs New York Yankees 0.637 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays -0.006 vs New York Yankees 0.053 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays does not clearly favor either side.

Tampa Bay Rays 0.500 vs New York Yankees 0.500 — roughly even
Tampa Bay Rays 0 vs New York Yankees 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 6, Tampa Bay Rays 3 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.