St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets

April 17, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (13 edges vs 11 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.611 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.474 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.11 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.53 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.95 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 2.89 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.42 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.333 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.917 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.809 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.95 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 2.89 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.42 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.833 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.143 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 98.1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 99.9 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

New York Mets 4.81 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.54 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 1.56 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.95 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 7.40 vs St. Louis Cardinals 6.67 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -0.68 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.31 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.18 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.50 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 1.24 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.89 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 2.44 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.60 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 22.7 vs St. Louis Cardinals 18 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

New York Mets 0.345 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.420 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.426 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.516 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.364 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.362 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.467 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.423 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.378 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.427 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.477 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.544 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.441 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets 0.033 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.008 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets does not clearly favor either side.

New York Mets 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 — roughly even
New York Mets 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 1, New York Mets 4 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.