San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies

April 16, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans San Francisco Giants

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned San Francisco Giants (18 edges vs 7 for Philadelphia Phillies).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans San Francisco Giants

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the San Francisco Giants.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.588 vs San Francisco Giants 0.706 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 0.18 vs San Francisco Giants 1.59 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 4.12 vs San Francisco Giants 5.24 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 3.94 vs San Francisco Giants 3.65 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 vs San Francisco Giants 0.667 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 0.810 vs San Francisco Giants 1.210 — leans San Francisco Giants

Season to date — leans San Francisco Giants

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the San Francisco Giants.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.12 vs San Francisco Giants 5.24 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 3.94 vs San Francisco Giants 3.65 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 0.750 vs San Francisco Giants 0.727 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 118.4 vs San Francisco Giants 85.3 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans San Francisco Giants

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the San Francisco Giants.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.94 vs San Francisco Giants 2.52 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 1.50 vs San Francisco Giants 1.04 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 10.21 vs San Francisco Giants 9.36 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies -2.51 vs San Francisco Giants 3.16 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 4.66 vs San Francisco Giants 1.83 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 1.19 vs San Francisco Giants 0.71 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 3.31 vs San Francisco Giants 3.41 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 19.3 vs San Francisco Giants 15.3 — leans San Francisco Giants

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.377 vs San Francisco Giants 0.357 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 vs San Francisco Giants 0.479 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 0.356 vs San Francisco Giants 0.393 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 0.408 vs San Francisco Giants 0.566 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 0.405 vs San Francisco Giants 0.367 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.479 vs San Francisco Giants 0.502 — leans San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies 0.673 vs San Francisco Giants 0.545 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.027 vs San Francisco Giants 0.010 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — leans San Francisco Giants

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the San Francisco Giants.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs San Francisco Giants 0.500 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies -2 vs San Francisco Giants 2 — leans San Francisco Giants

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (LowVig.ag)

Final Score

San Francisco Giants 11, Philadelphia Phillies 4 — San Francisco Giants win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.