Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals

April 11, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (12 edges vs 11 for St. Louis Cardinals).

Note: the model leans St. Louis Cardinals even though the simple edge count favors Philadelphia Phillies. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.385 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals -0.15 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.08 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 5.54 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.67 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 5.69 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.58 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.602 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.786 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 5.54 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.67 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 5.69 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.58 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 96.1 vs Philadelphia Phillies 123.7 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

St. Louis Cardinals 2.54 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.94 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.95 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.50 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 6.67 vs Philadelphia Phillies 10.21 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals -0.31 vs Philadelphia Phillies -2.51 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 5.13 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.50 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 1.71 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.15 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 3.29 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.50 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 22.3 vs Philadelphia Phillies 14.3 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.425 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.393 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.532 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.477 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.365 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.373 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.417 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.357 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.455 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.424 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.567 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.511 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.557 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.794 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals 0.030 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.031 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals does not clearly favor either side.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 0, St. Louis Cardinals 2 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.