San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees

April 11, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans San Francisco Giants

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (12 edges vs 10 for San Francisco Giants).

Note: the model leans San Francisco Giants even though the simple edge count favors New York Yankees. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans San Francisco Giants

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the San Francisco Giants.

New York Yankees 0.583 vs San Francisco Giants 0.750 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees 1.92 vs San Francisco Giants 1.50 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 6.83 vs San Francisco Giants 4.75 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.92 vs San Francisco Giants 3.25 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees 0.333 vs San Francisco Giants 0.333 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.293 vs San Francisco Giants 0.561 — leans San Francisco Giants

Season to date — leans San Francisco Giants

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the San Francisco Giants.

New York Yankees 6.83 vs San Francisco Giants 4.75 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.92 vs San Francisco Giants 3.25 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees 0.667 vs San Francisco Giants 0.833 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees 78.4 vs San Francisco Giants 78.4 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans San Francisco Giants

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the San Francisco Giants.

New York Yankees 7.52 vs San Francisco Giants 4.57 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees 1.77 vs San Francisco Giants 1.11 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees 6.20 vs San Francisco Giants 8.72 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees -3 vs San Francisco Giants 2.26 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 2.82 vs San Francisco Giants 1.82 — leans San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees 1.07 vs San Francisco Giants 1.38 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.19 vs San Francisco Giants 3.42 — roughly even
New York Yankees 19 vs San Francisco Giants 16 — leans San Francisco Giants

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.411 vs San Francisco Giants 0.340 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.571 vs San Francisco Giants 0.498 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.424 vs San Francisco Giants 0.375 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.640 vs San Francisco Giants 0.511 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.488 vs San Francisco Giants 0.354 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.926 vs San Francisco Giants 0.482 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.551 vs San Francisco Giants 0.545 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.076 vs San Francisco Giants 0.014 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees does not clearly favor either side.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs San Francisco Giants 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0 vs San Francisco Giants 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

San Francisco Giants 9, New York Yankees 1 — San Francisco Giants win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.