St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

April 9, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (14 edges vs 10 for Pittsburgh Pirates).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

Pittsburgh Pirates 0.333 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.417 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.67 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.08 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 3.58 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.92 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 5.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 6 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.667 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.488 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.901 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Season to date — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates 3.58 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.92 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 5.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 6 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.400 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.167 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 97.6 vs St. Louis Cardinals 96.3 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates 8.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.79 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.11 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 7.88 vs St. Louis Cardinals 6.33 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.88 vs St. Louis Cardinals -1.63 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 4.63 vs St. Louis Cardinals 7.96 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.29 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.04 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 4.04 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.87 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 21.3 vs St. Louis Cardinals 26 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Pittsburgh Pirates 0.336 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.425 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.403 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.547 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.325 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.386 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.370 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.518 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.347 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.444 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.325 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.575 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.400 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.424 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.011 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.019 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Series & head-to-head — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals -1 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Lines

St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | O/U 6.5 (Fanatics)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 1, Pittsburgh Pirates 2 — Pittsburgh Pirates win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.