Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets

April 5, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Toronto Blue Jays

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (12 edges vs 7 for Toronto Blue Jays).

Note: the model leans Toronto Blue Jays even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.571 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.625 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
New York Mets 1.29 vs Toronto Blue Jays -0.50 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4 — roughly even
New York Mets 2.71 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.50 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.667 — roughly even
New York Mets 1.083 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.750 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4 — roughly even
New York Mets 2.71 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.50 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 102.0 vs Toronto Blue Jays 109.1 — leans Toronto Blue Jays

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 5.74 vs Toronto Blue Jays 2.84 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
New York Mets 1.43 vs Toronto Blue Jays 1.89 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 7.09 vs Toronto Blue Jays 9.24 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
New York Mets 0.11 vs Toronto Blue Jays -0.07 — roughly even
New York Mets 1.61 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.91 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.99 vs Toronto Blue Jays 1.14 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.29 vs Toronto Blue Jays 2.46 — roughly even
New York Mets 16 vs Toronto Blue Jays 16 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Toronto Blue Jays

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Toronto Blue Jays.

New York Mets 0.348 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.377 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
New York Mets 0.450 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.417 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.302 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.384 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
New York Mets 0.438 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.458 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.365 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.393 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
New York Mets 0.442 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.452 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.702 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.522 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.017 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.016 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 1 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 5 vs Toronto Blue Jays -5 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Toronto Blue Jays 2, New York Mets 3 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.