New York Mets vs Miami Marlins

March 31, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Miami Marlins (13 edges vs 11 for New York Mets).

Note: the model leans New York Mets even though the simple edge count favors Miami Marlins. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Miami Marlins

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Miami Marlins.

Miami Marlins 0.750 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 0.50 vs New York Mets -0.33 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 4 vs New York Mets 1.67 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 3.50 vs New York Mets 2 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 0.917 vs New York Mets 1 — roughly even

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between New York Mets and Miami Marlins.

Miami Marlins 4 vs New York Mets 1.67 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 3.50 vs New York Mets 2 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 0.750 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 72.5 vs New York Mets 107.0 — leans New York Mets

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Miami Marlins 7.29 vs New York Mets 3.14 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 2.14 vs New York Mets 1.19 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 5.57 vs New York Mets 9.73 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins -4.41 vs New York Mets 1.18 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 1.04 vs New York Mets 3.18 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 1.15 vs New York Mets 1.29 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 3.87 vs New York Mets 2.75 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 19.3 vs New York Mets 9.7 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — leans Miami Marlins

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Miami Marlins.

Miami Marlins 0.383 vs New York Mets 0.358 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 0.488 vs New York Mets 0.450 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 0.312 vs New York Mets 0.305 — roughly even
Miami Marlins 0.370 vs New York Mets 0.349 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 0.350 vs New York Mets 0.399 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 0.458 vs New York Mets 0.505 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 0.812 vs New York Mets 0.273 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins -0.033 vs New York Mets 0.041 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between New York Mets and Miami Marlins does not clearly favor either side.

Miami Marlins 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
Miami Marlins 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 10, Miami Marlins 4 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.