← All picks for March 28, 2025
New York Mets vs Houston Astros
March 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Houston Astros
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Houston Astros (13 edges vs 12 for New York Mets).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Houston Astros
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Houston Astros.
- Houston Astros 1 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 2 vs New York Mets -2 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 3 vs New York Mets 1 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 1 vs New York Mets 3 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 1 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 1 vs New York Mets 1 — roughly even
Season to date — leans Houston Astros
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Houston Astros.
- Houston Astros 3 vs New York Mets 1 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 1 vs New York Mets 3 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 1 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 126.7 vs New York Mets 107.0 — leans Houston Astros
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Houston Astros 3.10 vs New York Mets 1.69 — leans New York Mets
- Houston Astros 1.17 vs New York Mets 1.01 — leans New York Mets
- Houston Astros 9.62 vs New York Mets 11.14 — leans New York Mets
- Houston Astros 0.05 vs New York Mets -1.38 — leans New York Mets
- Houston Astros 5.40 vs New York Mets 5.30 — roughly even
- Houston Astros 1.69 vs New York Mets 1.39 — leans New York Mets
- Houston Astros 3.54 vs New York Mets 2.40 — leans New York Mets
- Houston Astros 2 vs New York Mets 3.3 — leans Houston Astros
Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Houston Astros 0.378 vs New York Mets 0.365 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 0.460 vs New York Mets 0.459 — roughly even
- Houston Astros 0.330 vs New York Mets 0.348 — leans New York Mets
- Houston Astros 0.325 vs New York Mets 0.407 — leans New York Mets
- Houston Astros 0.397 vs New York Mets 0.409 — leans New York Mets
- Houston Astros 0.465 vs New York Mets 0.542 — leans New York Mets
- Houston Astros 0.145 vs New York Mets 0.575 — leans New York Mets
- Houston Astros 0.019 vs New York Mets 0.044 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans Houston Astros
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Houston Astros.
- Houston Astros 1 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 2 vs New York Mets -2 — leans Houston Astros
Betting Lines
Houston Astros -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (BetOnline.ag)
Final Score
New York Mets 3, Houston Astros 1 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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