Feeling ClutchStade Brestois 29 vs Lorient
Monday, November 2, 2026 — Ligue 1 Prediction & Pick
Lorient 48% to win
Home win 48%, draw 26%, away win 26%. That lean is driven mainly by elo. Standings and Form pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Lorient (11 edges vs 6 edges for Stade Brestois 29).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Lorient
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Lorient.
- Win rate: Lorient 0.33 vs Stade Brestois 29 0.17 — leans Lorient
- Points per game: Lorient 1.33 vs Stade Brestois 29 0.83 — leans Lorient
- Goals scored per game: Lorient 1.25 vs Stade Brestois 29 1.33 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: Lorient 1.08 vs Stade Brestois 29 1.67 — leans Lorient
- Goal difference per game: Lorient 0.17 vs Stade Brestois 29 -0.33 — leans Lorient
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Lorient
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Lorient.
- Win rate: Lorient 0.50 vs Stade Brestois 29 0.33 — leans Lorient
- Points per game: Lorient 1.83 vs Stade Brestois 29 1.17 — leans Lorient
- Goals scored per game: Lorient 1.00 vs Stade Brestois 29 1.67 — leans Stade Brestois 29
- Goals allowed per game: Lorient 0.67 vs Stade Brestois 29 1.33 — leans Lorient
Table and competition — leans Lorient
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Lorient.
- Table rank: Lorient 9 vs Stade Brestois 29 13 — leans Lorient
- Points: Lorient 12 vs Stade Brestois 29 9 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Lorient 1 vs Stade Brestois 29 2 — roughly even
- Points per game in this competition: Lorient 1.83 vs Stade Brestois 29 1.17 — leans Lorient
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Lorient 1.00 vs Stade Brestois 29 1.67 — leans Stade Brestois 29
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Lorient 0.67 vs Stade Brestois 29 1.33 — leans Lorient
Shots and expected goals — leans Stade Brestois 29
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Stade Brestois 29.
- Expected goals for: Lorient 1.20 vs Stade Brestois 29 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Lorient 1.20 vs Stade Brestois 29 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Lorient 2.9 vs Stade Brestois 29 4.0 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Lorient 0.9 vs Stade Brestois 29 1.7 — leans Stade Brestois 29
Rest and availability — leans Stade Brestois 29
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Stade Brestois 29.
- Days of rest: Lorient 6 vs Stade Brestois 29 8 — leans Stade Brestois 29
- Listed injuries: Lorient 0 vs Stade Brestois 29 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Lorient
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Lorient.
- Elo: Lorient 1506 vs Stade Brestois 29 1493 — roughly even
- Win streak: Lorient 0 vs Stade Brestois 29 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Lorient 1 vs Stade Brestois 29 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Lorient 0.50 vs Stade Brestois 29 0.17 — leans Lorient
Head-to-head — leans Stade Brestois 29
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Stade Brestois 29.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Lorient 0.33 vs Stade Brestois 29 0.50 — leans Stade Brestois 29
- Goals per meeting: Lorient 1.17 vs Stade Brestois 29 2.00 — leans Stade Brestois 29
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Stade Brestois 29 +187 | Draw +253 | Lorient +161 | O/U 2.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.