Feeling ClutchParma vs Atalanta
Monday, November 2, 2026 — Serie A Prediction & Pick
Atalanta 56% to win
Home win 56%, draw 23%, away win 21%. That lean is driven mainly by elo and form.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Atalanta (14 edges vs 2 edges for Parma).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Atalanta
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Atalanta.
- Win rate: Atalanta 0.33 vs Parma 0.17 — leans Atalanta
- Points per game: Atalanta 1.25 vs Parma 0.58 — leans Atalanta
- Goals scored per game: Atalanta 1.50 vs Parma 0.67 — leans Atalanta
- Goals allowed per game: Atalanta 1.58 vs Parma 1.75 — leans Atalanta
- Goal difference per game: Atalanta -0.08 vs Parma -1.08 — leans Atalanta
Short-term form (last 5 games) — roughly even
Short-term form is roughly even between Parma and Atalanta.
- Win rate: Atalanta 0.17 vs Parma 0.17 — roughly even
- Points per game: Atalanta 0.67 vs Parma 0.67 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Atalanta 1.83 vs Parma 0.83 — leans Atalanta
- Goals allowed per game: Atalanta 2.33 vs Parma 2.00 — leans Parma
Table and competition — leans Atalanta
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Atalanta.
- Table rank: Atalanta 11 vs Parma 19 — leans Atalanta
- Points: Atalanta 10 vs Parma 4 — leans Atalanta
- Goal difference: Atalanta -1 vs Parma -10 — leans Atalanta
- Points per game in this competition: Atalanta 0.67 vs Parma 0.67 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Atalanta 1.83 vs Parma 0.83 — leans Atalanta
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Atalanta 2.33 vs Parma 2.00 — leans Parma
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: Atalanta 1.20 vs Parma 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Atalanta 1.20 vs Parma 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Atalanta 5.6 vs Parma 5.1 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Atalanta 2.2 vs Parma 1.7 — roughly even
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Parma and Atalanta.
- Days of rest: Atalanta 8 vs Parma 9 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Atalanta 0 vs Parma 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Atalanta
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Atalanta.
- Elo: Atalanta 1575 vs Parma 1461 — leans Atalanta
- Win streak: Atalanta 0 vs Parma 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Atalanta 1 vs Parma 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Atalanta 0.42 vs Parma 0.25 — leans Atalanta
Head-to-head — leans Atalanta
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Atalanta.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Atalanta 0.50 vs Parma 0.25 — leans Atalanta
- Goals per meeting: Atalanta 2.50 vs Parma 1.25 — leans Atalanta
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Parma +616 | Draw +374 | Atalanta -198 | O/U 2.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.