Feeling ClutchFiorentina vs Sassuolo
Monday, November 2, 2026 — Serie A Prediction & Pick
Sassuolo 50% to win
Home win 50%, draw 24%, away win 25%. That lean is driven mainly by form. Elo pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Sassuolo (10 edges vs 4 edges for Fiorentina).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Sassuolo
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Sassuolo.
- Win rate: Sassuolo 0.25 vs Fiorentina 0.17 — leans Sassuolo
- Points per game: Sassuolo 0.92 vs Fiorentina 0.75 — leans Sassuolo
- Goals scored per game: Sassuolo 1.42 vs Fiorentina 1.00 — leans Sassuolo
- Goals allowed per game: Sassuolo 1.83 vs Fiorentina 2.00 — leans Sassuolo
- Goal difference per game: Sassuolo -0.42 vs Fiorentina -1.00 — leans Sassuolo
Short-term form (last 5 games) — roughly even
Short-term form is roughly even between Fiorentina and Sassuolo.
- Win rate: Sassuolo 0.17 vs Fiorentina 0.17 — roughly even
- Points per game: Sassuolo 0.83 vs Fiorentina 0.67 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Sassuolo 1.50 vs Fiorentina 1.50 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: Sassuolo 2.17 vs Fiorentina 2.00 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans Sassuolo
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Sassuolo.
- Table rank: Sassuolo 14 vs Fiorentina 18 — leans Sassuolo
- Points: Sassuolo 8 vs Fiorentina 4 — leans Sassuolo
- Goal difference: Sassuolo -4 vs Fiorentina -10 — leans Sassuolo
- Points per game in this competition: Sassuolo 0.83 vs Fiorentina 0.67 — leans Sassuolo
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Sassuolo 1.50 vs Fiorentina 1.50 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Sassuolo 2.17 vs Fiorentina 2.00 — leans Fiorentina
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: Sassuolo 1.20 vs Fiorentina 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Sassuolo 1.20 vs Fiorentina 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Sassuolo 4.2 vs Fiorentina 4.7 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Sassuolo 1.5 vs Fiorentina 1.3 — roughly even
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Fiorentina and Sassuolo.
- Days of rest: Sassuolo 9 vs Fiorentina 8 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Sassuolo 0 vs Fiorentina 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — roughly even
Elo, streaks, and venue splits do not clearly separate Fiorentina and Sassuolo.
- Elo: Sassuolo 1467 vs Fiorentina 1499 — leans Fiorentina
- Win streak: Sassuolo 0 vs Fiorentina 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Sassuolo 0 vs Fiorentina 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Sassuolo 0.67 vs Fiorentina 0.42 — leans Sassuolo
Head-to-head — leans Fiorentina
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Fiorentina.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Sassuolo 0.33 vs Fiorentina 0.50 — leans Fiorentina
- Goals per meeting: Sassuolo 1.17 vs Fiorentina 1.83 — leans Fiorentina
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Fiorentina +156 | Draw +268 | Sassuolo +183 | O/U 2.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.