Feeling ClutchEverton vs Newcastle
Monday, November 2, 2026 — Premier League Prediction & Pick
Newcastle 52% to win
Home win 52%, draw 23%, away win 25%. That lean is driven mainly by form. Elo and Standings pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Newcastle (11 edges vs 4 edges for Everton).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Newcastle
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Newcastle.
- Win rate: Newcastle 0.42 vs Everton 0.17 — leans Newcastle
- Points per game: Newcastle 1.50 vs Everton 1.00 — leans Newcastle
- Goals scored per game: Newcastle 1.58 vs Everton 1.17 — leans Newcastle
- Goals allowed per game: Newcastle 1.58 vs Everton 1.50 — roughly even
- Goal difference per game: Newcastle 0.00 vs Everton -0.33 — leans Newcastle
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Newcastle
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Newcastle.
- Win rate: Newcastle 0.33 vs Everton 0.17 — leans Newcastle
- Points per game: Newcastle 1.17 vs Everton 1.00 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Newcastle 1.33 vs Everton 0.83 — leans Newcastle
- Goals allowed per game: Newcastle 2.00 vs Everton 1.33 — leans Everton
Table and competition — leans Newcastle
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Newcastle.
- Table rank: Newcastle 8 vs Everton 11 — leans Newcastle
- Points: Newcastle 11 vs Everton 10 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Newcastle -2 vs Everton -1 — roughly even
- Points per game in this competition: Newcastle 1.17 vs Everton 1.00 — leans Newcastle
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Newcastle 1.33 vs Everton 0.83 — leans Newcastle
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Newcastle 2.00 vs Everton 1.33 — leans Everton
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: Newcastle 1.20 vs Everton 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Newcastle 1.20 vs Everton 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Newcastle 5.3 vs Everton 4.2 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Newcastle 1.6 vs Everton 1.4 — roughly even
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Everton and Newcastle.
- Days of rest: Newcastle 8 vs Everton 9 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Newcastle 0 vs Everton 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Newcastle
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Newcastle.
- Elo: Newcastle 1566 vs Everton 1529 — leans Newcastle
- Win streak: Newcastle 1 vs Everton 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Newcastle 1 vs Everton 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Newcastle 0.42 vs Everton 0.17 — leans Newcastle
Head-to-head — leans Everton
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Everton.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Newcastle 0.17 vs Everton 0.50 — leans Everton
- Goals per meeting: Newcastle 1.17 vs Everton 1.50 — leans Everton
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Everton +220 | Draw +270 | Newcastle +138 | O/U 2.5 (Matchbook)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.