Feeling ClutchValencia vs Elche
Sunday, November 1, 2026 — La Liga Prediction & Pick
Elche 50% to win
Home win 50%, draw 26%, away win 25%. That lean is driven mainly by form. Elo pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Elche (15 edges vs 2 edges for Valencia).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Elche
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Elche.
- Win rate: Elche 0.25 vs Valencia 0.25 — roughly even
- Points per game: Elche 1.17 vs Valencia 1.00 — leans Elche
- Goals scored per game: Elche 1.33 vs Valencia 1.17 — leans Elche
- Goals allowed per game: Elche 1.50 vs Valencia 1.75 — leans Elche
- Goal difference per game: Elche -0.17 vs Valencia -0.58 — leans Elche
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Elche
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Elche.
- Win rate: Elche 0.33 vs Valencia 0.17 — leans Elche
- Points per game: Elche 1.50 vs Valencia 0.83 — leans Elche
- Goals scored per game: Elche 1.50 vs Valencia 1.00 — leans Elche
- Goals allowed per game: Elche 0.83 vs Valencia 1.33 — leans Elche
Table and competition — leans Elche
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Elche.
- Table rank: Elche 15 vs Valencia 19 — leans Elche
- Points: Elche 10 vs Valencia 6 — leans Elche
- Goal difference: Elche -3 vs Valencia -10 — leans Elche
- Points per game in this competition: Elche 1.50 vs Valencia 0.83 — leans Elche
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Elche 1.50 vs Valencia 1.00 — leans Elche
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Elche 0.83 vs Valencia 1.33 — leans Elche
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: Elche 1.20 vs Valencia 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Elche 1.20 vs Valencia 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Elche 4.7 vs Valencia 5.6 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Elche 1.8 vs Valencia 1.5 — roughly even
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Valencia and Elche.
- Days of rest: Elche 8 vs Valencia 8 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Elche 0 vs Valencia 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — roughly even
Elo, streaks, and venue splits do not clearly separate Valencia and Elche.
- Elo: Elche 1467 vs Valencia 1484 — roughly even
- Win streak: Elche 1 vs Valencia 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Elche 2 vs Valencia 0 — leans Elche
- Home/away split win rate: Elche 0.33 vs Valencia 0.42 — leans Valencia
Head-to-head — leans Valencia
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Valencia.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Elche 0.25 vs Valencia 0.25 — roughly even
- Goals per meeting: Elche 1.00 vs Valencia 1.25 — leans Valencia
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Valencia +220 | Draw +245 | Elche +146 | O/U 2.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.