Feeling ClutchToulouse vs Marseille
Sunday, November 1, 2026 — Ligue 1 Prediction & Pick
Marseille 52% to win
Home win 52%, draw 22%, away win 25%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Marseille (15 edges vs 2 edges for Toulouse).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Marseille
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Marseille.
- Win rate: Marseille 0.50 vs Toulouse 0.33 — leans Marseille
- Points per game: Marseille 1.58 vs Toulouse 1.42 — leans Marseille
- Goals scored per game: Marseille 1.92 vs Toulouse 1.67 — leans Marseille
- Goals allowed per game: Marseille 1.50 vs Toulouse 1.50 — roughly even
- Goal difference per game: Marseille 0.42 vs Toulouse 0.17 — leans Marseille
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Marseille
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Marseille.
- Win rate: Marseille 0.50 vs Toulouse 0.33 — leans Marseille
- Points per game: Marseille 1.50 vs Toulouse 1.50 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Marseille 2.33 vs Toulouse 1.67 — leans Marseille
- Goals allowed per game: Marseille 1.83 vs Toulouse 1.17 — leans Toulouse
Table and competition — leans Marseille
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Marseille.
- Table rank: Marseille 8 vs Toulouse 11 — leans Marseille
- Points: Marseille 12 vs Toulouse 10 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Marseille 5 vs Toulouse 1 — leans Marseille
- Points per game in this competition: Marseille 1.50 vs Toulouse 1.50 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Marseille 2.33 vs Toulouse 1.67 — leans Marseille
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Marseille 1.83 vs Toulouse 1.17 — leans Toulouse
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: Marseille 1.20 vs Toulouse 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Marseille 1.20 vs Toulouse 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Marseille 4.1 vs Toulouse 3.5 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Marseille 1.6 vs Toulouse 1.4 — roughly even
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Toulouse and Marseille.
- Days of rest: Marseille 7 vs Toulouse 7 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Marseille 0 vs Toulouse 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Marseille
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Marseille.
- Elo: Marseille 1571 vs Toulouse 1516 — leans Marseille
- Win streak: Marseille 3 vs Toulouse 0 — leans Marseille
- Unbeaten streak: Marseille 3 vs Toulouse 1 — leans Marseille
- Home/away split win rate: Marseille 0.58 vs Toulouse 0.33 — leans Marseille
Head-to-head — leans Marseille
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Marseille.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Marseille 0.50 vs Toulouse 0.00 — leans Marseille
- Goals per meeting: Marseille 1.83 vs Toulouse 1.17 — leans Marseille
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Toulouse +282 | Draw +316 | Marseille -105 | O/U 3.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.