Feeling ClutchToronto FC vs Atlanta United FC
Sunday, November 1, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
Atlanta United FC 44% to win
Home win 44%, draw 24%, away win 32%. No single feature group clearly drives that lean. Elo pulls the other way.
Tracked inputs were split fairly evenly between the two sides.
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — roughly even
Recent form over the last ten games looks similar for Toronto FC and Atlanta United FC.
- Win rate: Atlanta United FC 0.33 vs Toronto FC 0.33 — roughly even
- Points per game: Atlanta United FC 1.25 vs Toronto FC 1.33 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Atlanta United FC 1.50 vs Toronto FC 1.83 — leans Toronto FC
- Goals allowed per game: Atlanta United FC 1.67 vs Toronto FC 2.17 — leans Atlanta United FC
- Goal difference per game: Atlanta United FC -0.17 vs Toronto FC -0.33 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Atlanta United FC
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Atlanta United FC.
- Win rate: Atlanta United FC 0.33 vs Toronto FC 0.33 — roughly even
- Points per game: Atlanta United FC 1.17 vs Toronto FC 1.17 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Atlanta United FC 1.67 vs Toronto FC 1.67 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: Atlanta United FC 1.83 vs Toronto FC 2.17 — leans Atlanta United FC
Table and competition — leans Toronto FC
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Toronto FC.
- Table rank: Atlanta United FC 28 vs Toronto FC 22 — leans Toronto FC
- Points: Atlanta United FC 30 vs Toronto FC 36 — leans Toronto FC
- Goal difference: Atlanta United FC -15 vs Toronto FC -11 — leans Toronto FC
- Points per game in this competition: Atlanta United FC 1.17 vs Toronto FC 1.17 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Atlanta United FC 1.67 vs Toronto FC 1.67 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Atlanta United FC 1.83 vs Toronto FC 2.17 — leans Atlanta United FC
Shots and expected goals — leans Toronto FC
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Toronto FC.
- Expected goals for: Atlanta United FC 1.20 vs Toronto FC 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Atlanta United FC 1.20 vs Toronto FC 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Atlanta United FC 2.3 vs Toronto FC 3.3 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Atlanta United FC 0.5 vs Toronto FC 1.3 — leans Toronto FC
Rest and availability — leans Atlanta United FC
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Atlanta United FC.
- Days of rest: Atlanta United FC 8 vs Toronto FC 8 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Atlanta United FC 99 vs Toronto FC 203 — leans Atlanta United FC
Elo and streaks — roughly even
Elo, streaks, and venue splits do not clearly separate Toronto FC and Atlanta United FC.
- Elo: Atlanta United FC 1414 vs Toronto FC 1460 — leans Toronto FC
- Win streak: Atlanta United FC 0 vs Toronto FC 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Atlanta United FC 0 vs Toronto FC 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Atlanta United FC 0.25 vs Toronto FC 0.17 — leans Atlanta United FC
Head-to-head — leans Atlanta United FC
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Atlanta United FC.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Atlanta United FC 0.33 vs Toronto FC 0.17 — leans Atlanta United FC
- Goals per meeting: Atlanta United FC 1.17 vs Toronto FC 1.17 — roughly even
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Toronto FC +260 | Draw +320 | Atlanta United FC -107 | O/U 3.5 (LeoVegas (SE))
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.