Feeling ClutchNew York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC
Sunday, November 1, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
Nashville SC 71% to win
Home win 71%, draw 17%, away win 11%. That lean is driven mainly by form and standings.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Nashville SC (18 edges vs 1 edge for New York Red Bulls).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Nashville SC
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Nashville SC.
- Win rate: Nashville SC 0.67 vs New York Red Bulls 0.33 — leans Nashville SC
- Points per game: Nashville SC 2.25 vs New York Red Bulls 1.17 — leans Nashville SC
- Goals scored per game: Nashville SC 2.25 vs New York Red Bulls 0.92 — leans Nashville SC
- Goals allowed per game: Nashville SC 0.67 vs New York Red Bulls 1.25 — leans Nashville SC
- Goal difference per game: Nashville SC 1.58 vs New York Red Bulls -0.33 — leans Nashville SC
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Nashville SC
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Nashville SC.
- Win rate: Nashville SC 0.83 vs New York Red Bulls 0.50 — leans Nashville SC
- Points per game: Nashville SC 2.67 vs New York Red Bulls 1.50 — leans Nashville SC
- Goals scored per game: Nashville SC 2.67 vs New York Red Bulls 1.33 — leans Nashville SC
- Goals allowed per game: Nashville SC 0.33 vs New York Red Bulls 1.33 — leans Nashville SC
Table and competition — leans Nashville SC
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Nashville SC.
- Table rank: Nashville SC 1 vs New York Red Bulls 19 — leans Nashville SC
- Points: Nashville SC 70 vs New York Red Bulls 39 — leans Nashville SC
- Goal difference: Nashville SC 43 vs New York Red Bulls -15 — leans Nashville SC
- Points per game in this competition: Nashville SC 2.67 vs New York Red Bulls 1.50 — leans Nashville SC
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Nashville SC 2.67 vs New York Red Bulls 1.33 — leans Nashville SC
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Nashville SC 0.33 vs New York Red Bulls 1.33 — leans Nashville SC
Shots and expected goals — leans New York Red Bulls
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors New York Red Bulls.
- Expected goals for: Nashville SC 1.20 vs New York Red Bulls 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Nashville SC 1.20 vs New York Red Bulls 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Nashville SC 0.7 vs New York Red Bulls 2.8 — leans New York Red Bulls
- Shots on target for: Nashville SC 0.3 vs New York Red Bulls 0.8 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans Nashville SC
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Nashville SC.
- Days of rest: Nashville SC 8 vs New York Red Bulls 8 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Nashville SC 71 vs New York Red Bulls 96 — leans Nashville SC
Elo and streaks — leans Nashville SC
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Nashville SC.
- Elo: Nashville SC 1615 vs New York Red Bulls 1477 — leans Nashville SC
- Win streak: Nashville SC 1 vs New York Red Bulls 1 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Nashville SC 2 vs New York Red Bulls 1 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Nashville SC 0.92 vs New York Red Bulls 0.33 — leans Nashville SC
Head-to-head — roughly even
Head-to-head history between New York Red Bulls and Nashville SC does not clearly favor either side.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Nashville SC 0.33 vs New York Red Bulls 0.33 — roughly even
- Goals per meeting: Nashville SC 0.50 vs New York Red Bulls 0.67 — roughly even
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
New York Red Bulls +700 | Draw +500 | Nashville SC -286 | O/U 3.5 (LeoVegas (SE))
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.