Feeling ClutchHouston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers
Sunday, November 1, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
Portland Timbers 49% to win
Home win 49%, draw 24%, away win 27%. That lean is driven mainly by form. Elo pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Houston Dynamo (10 edges vs 4 edges for Portland Timbers).
Note: the model leans Portland Timbers even though the simple edge count favors Houston Dynamo. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Portland Timbers
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Portland Timbers.
- Win rate: Portland Timbers 0.25 vs Houston Dynamo 0.17 — leans Portland Timbers
- Points per game: Portland Timbers 1.08 vs Houston Dynamo 1.08 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Portland Timbers 1.67 vs Houston Dynamo 1.08 — leans Portland Timbers
- Goals allowed per game: Portland Timbers 1.92 vs Houston Dynamo 1.25 — leans Houston Dynamo
- Goal difference per game: Portland Timbers -0.25 vs Houston Dynamo -0.17 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — roughly even
Short-term form is roughly even between Houston Dynamo and Portland Timbers.
- Win rate: Portland Timbers 0.17 vs Houston Dynamo 0.00 — leans Portland Timbers
- Points per game: Portland Timbers 0.83 vs Houston Dynamo 0.83 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Portland Timbers 1.17 vs Houston Dynamo 1.50 — leans Houston Dynamo
- Goals allowed per game: Portland Timbers 1.83 vs Houston Dynamo 1.83 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans Houston Dynamo
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Houston Dynamo.
- Table rank: Portland Timbers 21 vs Houston Dynamo 9 — leans Houston Dynamo
- Points: Portland Timbers 37 vs Houston Dynamo 48 — leans Houston Dynamo
- Goal difference: Portland Timbers -4 vs Houston Dynamo 2 — leans Houston Dynamo
- Points per game in this competition: Portland Timbers 0.83 vs Houston Dynamo 0.83 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Portland Timbers 1.17 vs Houston Dynamo 1.50 — leans Houston Dynamo
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Portland Timbers 1.83 vs Houston Dynamo 1.83 — roughly even
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: Portland Timbers 1.20 vs Houston Dynamo 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Portland Timbers 1.20 vs Houston Dynamo 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Portland Timbers 0.0 vs Houston Dynamo 0.0 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Portland Timbers 0.0 vs Houston Dynamo 0.0 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans Houston Dynamo
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Houston Dynamo.
- Days of rest: Portland Timbers 8 vs Houston Dynamo 8 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Portland Timbers 91 vs Houston Dynamo 79 — leans Houston Dynamo
Elo and streaks — roughly even
Elo, streaks, and venue splits do not clearly separate Houston Dynamo and Portland Timbers.
- Elo: Portland Timbers 1479 vs Houston Dynamo 1505 — leans Houston Dynamo
- Win streak: Portland Timbers 1 vs Houston Dynamo 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Portland Timbers 2 vs Houston Dynamo 1 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Portland Timbers 0.58 vs Houston Dynamo 0.33 — leans Portland Timbers
Head-to-head — leans Houston Dynamo
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Houston Dynamo.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Portland Timbers 0.17 vs Houston Dynamo 0.67 — leans Houston Dynamo
- Goals per meeting: Portland Timbers 1.33 vs Houston Dynamo 1.83 — leans Houston Dynamo
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Houston Dynamo +230 | Draw +285 | Portland Timbers +112 | O/U 2.5 (LeoVegas (SE))
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.