Feeling ClutchGenoa vs Lecce
Sunday, November 1, 2026 — Serie A Prediction & Pick
Lecce 46% to win
Home win 46%, draw 26%, away win 28%. That lean is driven mainly by form. Elo pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Lecce (9 edges vs 3 edges for Genoa).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Lecce
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Lecce.
- Win rate: Lecce 0.50 vs Genoa 0.17 — leans Lecce
- Points per game: Lecce 1.50 vs Genoa 0.75 — leans Lecce
- Goals scored per game: Lecce 1.25 vs Genoa 0.58 — leans Lecce
- Goals allowed per game: Lecce 1.50 vs Genoa 1.33 — leans Genoa
- Goal difference per game: Lecce -0.25 vs Genoa -0.75 — leans Lecce
Short-term form (last 5 games) — roughly even
Short-term form is roughly even between Genoa and Lecce.
- Win rate: Lecce 0.33 vs Genoa 0.33 — roughly even
- Points per game: Lecce 1.00 vs Genoa 1.17 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Lecce 1.17 vs Genoa 1.00 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: Lecce 1.67 vs Genoa 1.67 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans Lecce
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Lecce.
- Table rank: Lecce 12 vs Genoa 16 — leans Lecce
- Points: Lecce 9 vs Genoa 7 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Lecce -5 vs Genoa -7 — roughly even
- Points per game in this competition: Lecce 1.00 vs Genoa 1.17 — leans Genoa
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Lecce 1.17 vs Genoa 1.00 — leans Lecce
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Lecce 1.67 vs Genoa 1.67 — roughly even
Shots and expected goals — leans Lecce
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Lecce.
- Expected goals for: Lecce 1.20 vs Genoa 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Lecce 1.20 vs Genoa 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Lecce 4.8 vs Genoa 3.2 — leans Lecce
- Shots on target for: Lecce 1.9 vs Genoa 1.2 — leans Lecce
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Genoa and Lecce.
- Days of rest: Lecce 7 vs Genoa 7 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Lecce 0 vs Genoa 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — roughly even
Elo, streaks, and venue splits do not clearly separate Genoa and Lecce.
- Elo: Lecce 1442 vs Genoa 1468 — leans Genoa
- Win streak: Lecce 0 vs Genoa 1 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Lecce 0 vs Genoa 1 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Lecce 0.33 vs Genoa 0.17 — leans Lecce
Head-to-head — roughly even
Head-to-head history between Genoa and Lecce does not clearly favor either side.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Lecce 0.33 vs Genoa 0.33 — roughly even
- Goals per meeting: Lecce 0.67 vs Genoa 0.67 — roughly even
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Genoa +184 | Draw +222 | Lecce +183 | O/U 2.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.