Feeling ClutchCagliari vs Lazio
Sunday, November 1, 2026 — Serie A Prediction & Pick
Lazio 58% to win
Home win 58%, draw 23%, away win 19%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Lazio (22 edges vs 0 edges for Cagliari).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Lazio
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Lazio.
- Win rate: Lazio 0.75 vs Cagliari 0.50 — leans Lazio
- Points per game: Lazio 2.33 vs Cagliari 1.67 — leans Lazio
- Goals scored per game: Lazio 1.67 vs Cagliari 0.83 — leans Lazio
- Goals allowed per game: Lazio 1.00 vs Cagliari 1.08 — roughly even
- Goal difference per game: Lazio 0.67 vs Cagliari -0.25 — leans Lazio
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Lazio
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Lazio.
- Win rate: Lazio 0.83 vs Cagliari 0.50 — leans Lazio
- Points per game: Lazio 2.67 vs Cagliari 1.67 — leans Lazio
- Goals scored per game: Lazio 2.33 vs Cagliari 0.83 — leans Lazio
- Goals allowed per game: Lazio 0.83 vs Cagliari 1.33 — leans Lazio
Table and competition — leans Lazio
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Lazio.
- Table rank: Lazio 2 vs Cagliari 9 — leans Lazio
- Points: Lazio 22 vs Cagliari 13 — leans Lazio
- Goal difference: Lazio 11 vs Cagliari -3 — leans Lazio
- Points per game in this competition: Lazio 2.67 vs Cagliari 1.67 — leans Lazio
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Lazio 2.33 vs Cagliari 0.83 — leans Lazio
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Lazio 0.83 vs Cagliari 1.33 — leans Lazio
Shots and expected goals — leans Lazio
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Lazio.
- Expected goals for: Lazio 1.20 vs Cagliari 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Lazio 1.20 vs Cagliari 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Lazio 4.8 vs Cagliari 2.4 — leans Lazio
- Shots on target for: Lazio 1.4 vs Cagliari 0.8 — leans Lazio
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Cagliari and Lazio.
- Days of rest: Lazio 8 vs Cagliari 8 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Lazio 0 vs Cagliari 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Lazio
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Lazio.
- Elo: Lazio 1628 vs Cagliari 1491 — leans Lazio
- Win streak: Lazio 4 vs Cagliari 0 — leans Lazio
- Unbeaten streak: Lazio 5 vs Cagliari 0 — leans Lazio
- Home/away split win rate: Lazio 0.58 vs Cagliari 0.42 — leans Lazio
Head-to-head — leans Lazio
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Lazio.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Lazio 0.83 vs Cagliari 0.00 — leans Lazio
- Goals per meeting: Lazio 1.67 vs Cagliari 0.50 — leans Lazio
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Cagliari +554 | Draw +322 | Lazio -167 | O/U 2.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.