Feeling ClutchAuxerre vs Strasbourg
Sunday, November 1, 2026 — Ligue 1 Prediction & Pick
Strasbourg 51% to win
Home win 51%, draw 24%, away win 25%. That lean is driven mainly by elo and form.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Auxerre (10 edges vs 5 edges for Strasbourg).
Note: the model leans Strasbourg even though the simple edge count favors Auxerre. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Auxerre
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Auxerre.
- Win rate: Strasbourg 0.33 vs Auxerre 0.50 — leans Auxerre
- Points per game: Strasbourg 1.17 vs Auxerre 1.58 — leans Auxerre
- Goals scored per game: Strasbourg 1.75 vs Auxerre 1.75 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: Strasbourg 2.17 vs Auxerre 1.92 — leans Auxerre
- Goal difference per game: Strasbourg -0.42 vs Auxerre -0.17 — leans Auxerre
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Auxerre
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Auxerre.
- Win rate: Strasbourg 0.17 vs Auxerre 0.50 — leans Auxerre
- Points per game: Strasbourg 0.67 vs Auxerre 1.67 — leans Auxerre
- Goals scored per game: Strasbourg 1.67 vs Auxerre 1.50 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: Strasbourg 2.17 vs Auxerre 1.67 — leans Auxerre
Table and competition — leans Auxerre
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Auxerre.
- Table rank: Strasbourg 16 vs Auxerre 12 — leans Auxerre
- Points: Strasbourg 7 vs Auxerre 10 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Strasbourg -6 vs Auxerre -6 — roughly even
- Points per game in this competition: Strasbourg 0.67 vs Auxerre 1.67 — leans Auxerre
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Strasbourg 1.67 vs Auxerre 1.50 — leans Strasbourg
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Strasbourg 2.17 vs Auxerre 1.67 — leans Auxerre
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: Strasbourg 1.20 vs Auxerre 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Strasbourg 1.20 vs Auxerre 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Strasbourg 3.8 vs Auxerre 4.1 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Strasbourg 1.3 vs Auxerre 1.7 — roughly even
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Auxerre and Strasbourg.
- Days of rest: Strasbourg 7 vs Auxerre 7 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Strasbourg 0 vs Auxerre 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Strasbourg
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Strasbourg.
- Elo: Strasbourg 1544 vs Auxerre 1474 — leans Strasbourg
- Win streak: Strasbourg 0 vs Auxerre 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Strasbourg 0 vs Auxerre 1 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Strasbourg 0.42 vs Auxerre 0.25 — leans Strasbourg
Head-to-head — leans Strasbourg
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Strasbourg.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Strasbourg 0.67 vs Auxerre 0.17 — leans Strasbourg
- Goals per meeting: Strasbourg 1.50 vs Auxerre 0.33 — leans Strasbourg
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Auxerre +316 | Draw +316 | Strasbourg -115 | O/U 2.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.