Feeling Clutch1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin
Sunday, November 1, 2026 — Bundesliga Prediction & Pick
Union Berlin 45% to win
Home win 45%, draw 25%, away win 30%. That lean is driven mainly by elo. Form pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned 1. FC Köln (9 edges vs 7 edges for Union Berlin).
Note: the model leans Union Berlin even though the simple edge count favors 1. FC Köln. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Union Berlin
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Union Berlin.
- Win rate: Union Berlin 0.25 vs 1. FC Köln 0.17 — leans Union Berlin
- Points per game: Union Berlin 1.08 vs 1. FC Köln 0.83 — leans Union Berlin
- Goals scored per game: Union Berlin 1.42 vs 1. FC Köln 1.17 — leans Union Berlin
- Goals allowed per game: Union Berlin 2.17 vs 1. FC Köln 2.00 — leans 1. FC Köln
- Goal difference per game: Union Berlin -0.75 vs 1. FC Köln -0.83 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans 1. FC Köln
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors 1. FC Köln.
- Win rate: Union Berlin 0.17 vs 1. FC Köln 0.17 — roughly even
- Points per game: Union Berlin 0.83 vs 1. FC Köln 0.83 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Union Berlin 0.50 vs 1. FC Köln 0.83 — leans 1. FC Köln
- Goals allowed per game: Union Berlin 2.50 vs 1. FC Köln 1.50 — leans 1. FC Köln
Table and competition — leans 1. FC Köln
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors 1. FC Köln.
- Table rank: Union Berlin 17 vs 1. FC Köln 13 — leans 1. FC Köln
- Points: Union Berlin 6 vs 1. FC Köln 8 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Union Berlin -12 vs 1. FC Köln -3 — leans 1. FC Köln
- Points per game in this competition: Union Berlin 0.83 vs 1. FC Köln 0.83 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Union Berlin 0.50 vs 1. FC Köln 0.83 — leans 1. FC Köln
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Union Berlin 2.50 vs 1. FC Köln 1.50 — leans 1. FC Köln
Shots and expected goals — leans 1. FC Köln
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors 1. FC Köln.
- Expected goals for: Union Berlin 1.20 vs 1. FC Köln 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Union Berlin 1.20 vs 1. FC Köln 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Union Berlin 3.2 vs 1. FC Köln 5.0 — leans 1. FC Köln
- Shots on target for: Union Berlin 0.8 vs 1. FC Köln 1.7 — leans 1. FC Köln
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin.
- Days of rest: Union Berlin 8 vs 1. FC Köln 8 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Union Berlin 0 vs 1. FC Köln 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Union Berlin
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Union Berlin.
- Elo: Union Berlin 1468 vs 1. FC Köln 1423 — leans Union Berlin
- Win streak: Union Berlin 0 vs 1. FC Köln 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Union Berlin 1 vs 1. FC Köln 1 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Union Berlin 0.25 vs 1. FC Köln 0.00 — leans Union Berlin
Head-to-head — leans Union Berlin
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Union Berlin.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Union Berlin 0.50 vs 1. FC Köln 0.17 — leans Union Berlin
- Goals per meeting: Union Berlin 1.33 vs 1. FC Köln 0.83 — leans Union Berlin
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
1. FC Köln +172 | Draw +284 | Union Berlin +158 | O/U 2.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.