Feeling ClutchVfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — Bundesliga Prediction & Pick
Bayer Leverkusen 52% to win
Home win 52%, draw 23%, away win 26%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo. Standings pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Bayer Leverkusen (13 edges vs 8 edges for VfB Stuttgart).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Bayer Leverkusen
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Bayer Leverkusen.
- Win rate: Bayer Leverkusen 0.50 vs VfB Stuttgart 0.42 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Points per game: Bayer Leverkusen 1.67 vs VfB Stuttgart 1.42 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Goals scored per game: Bayer Leverkusen 2.08 vs VfB Stuttgart 1.83 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Goals allowed per game: Bayer Leverkusen 1.67 vs VfB Stuttgart 1.50 — leans VfB Stuttgart
- Goal difference per game: Bayer Leverkusen 0.42 vs VfB Stuttgart 0.33 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Bayer Leverkusen
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Bayer Leverkusen.
- Win rate: Bayer Leverkusen 0.67 vs VfB Stuttgart 0.33 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Points per game: Bayer Leverkusen 2.17 vs VfB Stuttgart 1.17 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Goals scored per game: Bayer Leverkusen 2.33 vs VfB Stuttgart 1.33 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Goals allowed per game: Bayer Leverkusen 1.50 vs VfB Stuttgart 1.00 — leans VfB Stuttgart
Table and competition — leans Bayer Leverkusen
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Bayer Leverkusen.
- Table rank: Bayer Leverkusen 4 vs VfB Stuttgart 15 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Points: Bayer Leverkusen 13 vs VfB Stuttgart 6 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Goal difference: Bayer Leverkusen 4 vs VfB Stuttgart -3 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Points per game in this competition: Bayer Leverkusen 2.17 vs VfB Stuttgart 1.00 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Bayer Leverkusen 2.33 vs VfB Stuttgart 1.50 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Bayer Leverkusen 1.50 vs VfB Stuttgart 1.33 — leans VfB Stuttgart
Shots and expected goals — leans VfB Stuttgart
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors VfB Stuttgart.
- Expected goals for: Bayer Leverkusen 1.20 vs VfB Stuttgart 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Bayer Leverkusen 1.20 vs VfB Stuttgart 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Bayer Leverkusen 4.6 vs VfB Stuttgart 8.6 — leans VfB Stuttgart
- Shots on target for: Bayer Leverkusen 1.6 vs VfB Stuttgart 3.0 — leans VfB Stuttgart
Rest and availability — leans VfB Stuttgart
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors VfB Stuttgart.
- Days of rest: Bayer Leverkusen 6 vs VfB Stuttgart 8 — leans VfB Stuttgart
- Listed injuries: Bayer Leverkusen 0 vs VfB Stuttgart 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Bayer Leverkusen
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Bayer Leverkusen.
- Elo: Bayer Leverkusen 1641 vs VfB Stuttgart 1586 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Win streak: Bayer Leverkusen 0 vs VfB Stuttgart 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Bayer Leverkusen 0 vs VfB Stuttgart 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Bayer Leverkusen 0.50 vs VfB Stuttgart 0.25 — leans Bayer Leverkusen
Head-to-head — leans VfB Stuttgart
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors VfB Stuttgart.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 0.17 vs VfB Stuttgart 0.33 — leans VfB Stuttgart
- Goals per meeting: Bayer Leverkusen 1.50 vs VfB Stuttgart 2.17 — leans VfB Stuttgart
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
VfB Stuttgart +290 | Draw +357 | Bayer Leverkusen -118 | O/U 3.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.