Feeling ClutchSC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — Bundesliga Prediction & Pick
FC Augsburg 44% to win
Home win 44%, draw 25%, away win 31%. That lean is driven mainly by standings. Elo and Form pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned SC Freiburg (10 edges vs 4 edges for FC Augsburg).
Note: the model leans FC Augsburg even though the simple edge count favors SC Freiburg. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans SC Freiburg
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors SC Freiburg.
- Win rate: FC Augsburg 0.42 vs SC Freiburg 0.50 — leans SC Freiburg
- Points per game: FC Augsburg 1.58 vs SC Freiburg 1.67 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: FC Augsburg 2.17 vs SC Freiburg 2.08 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: FC Augsburg 1.75 vs SC Freiburg 1.58 — leans SC Freiburg
- Goal difference per game: FC Augsburg 0.42 vs SC Freiburg 0.50 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans SC Freiburg
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors SC Freiburg.
- Win rate: FC Augsburg 0.17 vs SC Freiburg 0.50 — leans SC Freiburg
- Points per game: FC Augsburg 1.00 vs SC Freiburg 1.67 — leans SC Freiburg
- Goals scored per game: FC Augsburg 2.33 vs SC Freiburg 2.00 — leans FC Augsburg
- Goals allowed per game: FC Augsburg 2.17 vs SC Freiburg 1.33 — leans SC Freiburg
Table and competition — leans SC Freiburg
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors SC Freiburg.
- Table rank: FC Augsburg 9 vs SC Freiburg 3 — leans SC Freiburg
- Points: FC Augsburg 9 vs SC Freiburg 13 — leans SC Freiburg
- Goal difference: FC Augsburg 4 vs SC Freiburg 7 — roughly even
- Points per game in this competition: FC Augsburg 1.00 vs SC Freiburg 1.67 — leans SC Freiburg
- Goals scored per game in this competition: FC Augsburg 2.33 vs SC Freiburg 2.00 — leans FC Augsburg
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: FC Augsburg 2.17 vs SC Freiburg 1.33 — leans SC Freiburg
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: FC Augsburg 1.20 vs SC Freiburg 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: FC Augsburg 1.20 vs SC Freiburg 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: FC Augsburg 6.2 vs SC Freiburg 4.9 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: FC Augsburg 1.8 vs SC Freiburg 1.4 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans FC Augsburg
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors FC Augsburg.
- Days of rest: FC Augsburg 7 vs SC Freiburg 6 — leans FC Augsburg
- Listed injuries: FC Augsburg 0 vs SC Freiburg 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — roughly even
Elo, streaks, and venue splits do not clearly separate SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg.
- Elo: FC Augsburg 1505 vs SC Freiburg 1554 — leans SC Freiburg
- Win streak: FC Augsburg 0 vs SC Freiburg 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: FC Augsburg 1 vs SC Freiburg 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: FC Augsburg 0.42 vs SC Freiburg 0.25 — leans FC Augsburg
Head-to-head — roughly even
Head-to-head history between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg does not clearly favor either side.
- Win rate in prior meetings: FC Augsburg 0.33 vs SC Freiburg 0.33 — roughly even
- Goals per meeting: FC Augsburg 1.33 vs SC Freiburg 1.50 — roughly even
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
SC Freiburg +125 | Draw +307 | FC Augsburg +207 | O/U 3.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.