Feeling ClutchSan Diego vs St. Louis City
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
St. Louis City 55% to win
Home win 55%, draw 22%, away win 23%. That lean is driven mainly by form and standings.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis City (16 edges vs 2 edges for San Diego).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans St. Louis City
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors St. Louis City.
- Win rate: St. Louis City 0.50 vs San Diego 0.17 — leans St. Louis City
- Points per game: St. Louis City 1.83 vs San Diego 0.92 — leans St. Louis City
- Goals scored per game: St. Louis City 2.42 vs San Diego 1.83 — leans St. Louis City
- Goals allowed per game: St. Louis City 1.58 vs San Diego 2.42 — leans St. Louis City
- Goal difference per game: St. Louis City 0.83 vs San Diego -0.58 — leans St. Louis City
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans St. Louis City
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors St. Louis City.
- Win rate: St. Louis City 0.50 vs San Diego 0.00 — leans St. Louis City
- Points per game: St. Louis City 1.67 vs San Diego 0.83 — leans St. Louis City
- Goals scored per game: St. Louis City 2.33 vs San Diego 2.17 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: St. Louis City 1.50 vs San Diego 2.67 — leans St. Louis City
Table and competition — leans St. Louis City
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors St. Louis City.
- Table rank: St. Louis City 6 vs San Diego 24 — leans St. Louis City
- Points: St. Louis City 51 vs San Diego 35 — leans St. Louis City
- Goal difference: St. Louis City 12 vs San Diego -3 — leans St. Louis City
- Points per game in this competition: St. Louis City 1.67 vs San Diego 0.83 — leans St. Louis City
- Goals scored per game in this competition: St. Louis City 2.33 vs San Diego 2.17 — leans St. Louis City
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: St. Louis City 1.50 vs San Diego 2.67 — leans St. Louis City
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: St. Louis City 1.20 vs San Diego 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: St. Louis City 1.20 vs San Diego 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: St. Louis City 1.2 vs San Diego 0.0 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: St. Louis City 0.5 vs San Diego 0.0 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans St. Louis City
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors St. Louis City.
- Days of rest: St. Louis City 7 vs San Diego 7 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: St. Louis City 86 vs San Diego 122 — leans St. Louis City
Elo and streaks — leans St. Louis City
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors St. Louis City.
- Elo: St. Louis City 1520 vs San Diego 1504 — roughly even
- Win streak: St. Louis City 0 vs San Diego 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: St. Louis City 0 vs San Diego 1 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: St. Louis City 0.67 vs San Diego 0.08 — leans St. Louis City
Head-to-head — leans San Diego
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors San Diego.
- Win rate in prior meetings: St. Louis City 0.00 vs San Diego 0.67 — leans San Diego
- Goals per meeting: St. Louis City 0.33 vs San Diego 1.33 — leans San Diego
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
San Diego +360 | Draw +360 | St. Louis City -150 | O/U 3.5 (LeoVegas (SE))
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.