Feeling ClutchReal Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
San Jose Earthquakes 48% to win
Home win 48%, draw 24%, away win 28%. That lean is driven mainly by elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Real Salt Lake (9 edges vs 8 edges for San Jose Earthquakes).
Note: the model leans San Jose Earthquakes even though the simple edge count favors Real Salt Lake. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans San Jose Earthquakes
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors San Jose Earthquakes.
- Win rate: San Jose Earthquakes 0.25 vs Real Salt Lake 0.25 — roughly even
- Points per game: San Jose Earthquakes 1.25 vs Real Salt Lake 0.92 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
- Goals scored per game: San Jose Earthquakes 1.17 vs Real Salt Lake 1.17 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: San Jose Earthquakes 1.50 vs Real Salt Lake 1.58 — roughly even
- Goal difference per game: San Jose Earthquakes -0.33 vs Real Salt Lake -0.42 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Real Salt Lake
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Real Salt Lake.
- Win rate: San Jose Earthquakes 0.17 vs Real Salt Lake 0.50 — leans Real Salt Lake
- Points per game: San Jose Earthquakes 1.17 vs Real Salt Lake 1.67 — leans Real Salt Lake
- Goals scored per game: San Jose Earthquakes 1.33 vs Real Salt Lake 1.83 — leans Real Salt Lake
- Goals allowed per game: San Jose Earthquakes 1.50 vs Real Salt Lake 1.00 — leans Real Salt Lake
Table and competition — roughly even
Table and competition context is closely matched between Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes.
- Table rank: San Jose Earthquakes 8 vs Real Salt Lake 18 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
- Points: San Jose Earthquakes 48 vs Real Salt Lake 39 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
- Goal difference: San Jose Earthquakes 7 vs Real Salt Lake 0 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
- Points per game in this competition: San Jose Earthquakes 1.17 vs Real Salt Lake 1.67 — leans Real Salt Lake
- Goals scored per game in this competition: San Jose Earthquakes 1.33 vs Real Salt Lake 1.83 — leans Real Salt Lake
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: San Jose Earthquakes 1.50 vs Real Salt Lake 1.00 — leans Real Salt Lake
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: San Jose Earthquakes 1.20 vs Real Salt Lake 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: San Jose Earthquakes 1.20 vs Real Salt Lake 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: San Jose Earthquakes 0.3 vs Real Salt Lake 0.0 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: San Jose Earthquakes 0.1 vs Real Salt Lake 0.0 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans San Jose Earthquakes
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors San Jose Earthquakes.
- Days of rest: San Jose Earthquakes 7 vs Real Salt Lake 7 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: San Jose Earthquakes 80 vs Real Salt Lake 124 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
Elo and streaks — leans Real Salt Lake
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Real Salt Lake.
- Elo: San Jose Earthquakes 1491 vs Real Salt Lake 1477 — roughly even
- Win streak: San Jose Earthquakes 0 vs Real Salt Lake 2 — leans Real Salt Lake
- Unbeaten streak: San Jose Earthquakes 0 vs Real Salt Lake 3 — leans Real Salt Lake
- Home/away split win rate: San Jose Earthquakes 0.33 vs Real Salt Lake 0.08 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
Head-to-head — leans San Jose Earthquakes
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors San Jose Earthquakes.
- Win rate in prior meetings: San Jose Earthquakes 0.50 vs Real Salt Lake 0.33 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
- Goals per meeting: San Jose Earthquakes 1.67 vs Real Salt Lake 0.83 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Real Salt Lake +220 | Draw +310 | San Jose Earthquakes +110 | O/U 3.5 (LeoVegas (SE))
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.