Feeling ClutchPhiladelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
Philadelphia Union 45% to win
Home win 31%, draw 24%, away win 45%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Union (15 edges vs 4 edges for FC Cincinnati).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Philadelphia Union
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Philadelphia Union.
- Win rate: FC Cincinnati 0.33 vs Philadelphia Union 0.67 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Points per game: FC Cincinnati 1.25 vs Philadelphia Union 2.25 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Goals scored per game: FC Cincinnati 1.50 vs Philadelphia Union 2.83 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Goals allowed per game: FC Cincinnati 2.17 vs Philadelphia Union 1.25 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Goal difference per game: FC Cincinnati -0.67 vs Philadelphia Union 1.58 — leans Philadelphia Union
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Philadelphia Union
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Philadelphia Union.
- Win rate: FC Cincinnati 0.50 vs Philadelphia Union 0.67 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Points per game: FC Cincinnati 1.50 vs Philadelphia Union 2.17 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Goals scored per game: FC Cincinnati 1.67 vs Philadelphia Union 2.67 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Goals allowed per game: FC Cincinnati 1.67 vs Philadelphia Union 1.83 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans Philadelphia Union
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Philadelphia Union.
- Table rank: FC Cincinnati 15 vs Philadelphia Union 12 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Points: FC Cincinnati 42 vs Philadelphia Union 46 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Goal difference: FC Cincinnati -7 vs Philadelphia Union 12 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Points per game in this competition: FC Cincinnati 1.50 vs Philadelphia Union 2.17 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Goals scored per game in this competition: FC Cincinnati 1.67 vs Philadelphia Union 2.67 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: FC Cincinnati 1.67 vs Philadelphia Union 1.83 — leans FC Cincinnati
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: FC Cincinnati 1.20 vs Philadelphia Union 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: FC Cincinnati 1.20 vs Philadelphia Union 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: FC Cincinnati 3.7 vs Philadelphia Union 3.8 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: FC Cincinnati 1.2 vs Philadelphia Union 1.1 — roughly even
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati.
- Days of rest: FC Cincinnati 7 vs Philadelphia Union 7 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: FC Cincinnati 96 vs Philadelphia Union 95 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans FC Cincinnati
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors FC Cincinnati.
- Elo: FC Cincinnati 1544 vs Philadelphia Union 1563 — roughly even
- Win streak: FC Cincinnati 2 vs Philadelphia Union 0 — leans FC Cincinnati
- Unbeaten streak: FC Cincinnati 2 vs Philadelphia Union 0 — leans FC Cincinnati
- Home/away split win rate: FC Cincinnati 0.58 vs Philadelphia Union 0.42 — leans FC Cincinnati
Head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Union
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Philadelphia Union.
- Win rate in prior meetings: FC Cincinnati 0.33 vs Philadelphia Union 0.67 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Goals per meeting: FC Cincinnati 1.50 vs Philadelphia Union 3.00 — leans Philadelphia Union
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Philadelphia Union +105 | Draw +320 | FC Cincinnati +225 | O/U 3.5 (LeoVegas (SE))
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.