Feeling ClutchOrlando City SC vs Charlotte
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
Charlotte 48% to win
Home win 48%, draw 23%, away win 29%. That lean is driven mainly by standings. Form pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Orlando City SC (9 edges vs 8 edges for Charlotte).
Note: the model leans Charlotte even though the simple edge count favors Orlando City SC. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Orlando City SC
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Orlando City SC.
- Win rate: Charlotte 0.42 vs Orlando City SC 0.50 — leans Orlando City SC
- Points per game: Charlotte 1.58 vs Orlando City SC 1.75 — leans Orlando City SC
- Goals scored per game: Charlotte 1.92 vs Orlando City SC 2.42 — leans Orlando City SC
- Goals allowed per game: Charlotte 1.67 vs Orlando City SC 2.00 — leans Charlotte
- Goal difference per game: Charlotte 0.25 vs Orlando City SC 0.42 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — roughly even
Short-term form is roughly even between Orlando City SC and Charlotte.
- Win rate: Charlotte 0.33 vs Orlando City SC 0.33 — roughly even
- Points per game: Charlotte 1.17 vs Orlando City SC 1.33 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Charlotte 1.67 vs Orlando City SC 2.67 — leans Orlando City SC
- Goals allowed per game: Charlotte 2.00 vs Orlando City SC 2.67 — leans Charlotte
Table and competition — leans Charlotte
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Charlotte.
- Table rank: Charlotte 11 vs Orlando City SC 16 — leans Charlotte
- Points: Charlotte 47 vs Orlando City SC 42 — leans Charlotte
- Goal difference: Charlotte 7 vs Orlando City SC -12 — leans Charlotte
- Points per game in this competition: Charlotte 1.17 vs Orlando City SC 1.33 — leans Orlando City SC
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Charlotte 1.67 vs Orlando City SC 2.67 — leans Orlando City SC
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Charlotte 2.00 vs Orlando City SC 2.67 — leans Charlotte
Shots and expected goals — leans Orlando City SC
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Orlando City SC.
- Expected goals for: Charlotte 1.20 vs Orlando City SC 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Charlotte 1.20 vs Orlando City SC 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Charlotte 1.1 vs Orlando City SC 1.8 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Charlotte 0.2 vs Orlando City SC 0.9 — leans Orlando City SC
Rest and availability — leans Charlotte
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Charlotte.
- Days of rest: Charlotte 7 vs Orlando City SC 7 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Charlotte 51 vs Orlando City SC 104 — leans Charlotte
Elo and streaks — leans Charlotte
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Charlotte.
- Elo: Charlotte 1541 vs Orlando City SC 1526 — roughly even
- Win streak: Charlotte 0 vs Orlando City SC 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Charlotte 0 vs Orlando City SC 1 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Charlotte 0.58 vs Orlando City SC 0.33 — leans Charlotte
Head-to-head — leans Orlando City SC
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Orlando City SC.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Charlotte 0.00 vs Orlando City SC 0.50 — leans Orlando City SC
- Goals per meeting: Charlotte 0.83 vs Orlando City SC 2.00 — leans Orlando City SC
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Orlando City SC +255 | Draw +325 | Charlotte -108 | O/U 3.5 (LeoVegas (SE))
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.