Feeling ClutchNottingham Forest vs Brentford
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — Premier League Prediction & Pick
Brentford 54% to win
Home win 54%, draw 23%, away win 23%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo. Standings pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Brentford (12 edges vs 6 edges for Nottingham Forest).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Brentford
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Brentford.
- Win rate: Brentford 0.25 vs Nottingham Forest 0.17 — leans Brentford
- Points per game: Brentford 1.33 vs Nottingham Forest 0.92 — leans Brentford
- Goals scored per game: Brentford 1.67 vs Nottingham Forest 1.08 — leans Brentford
- Goals allowed per game: Brentford 1.25 vs Nottingham Forest 1.33 — roughly even
- Goal difference per game: Brentford 0.42 vs Nottingham Forest -0.25 — leans Brentford
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Brentford
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Brentford.
- Win rate: Brentford 0.17 vs Nottingham Forest 0.17 — roughly even
- Points per game: Brentford 1.17 vs Nottingham Forest 0.83 — leans Brentford
- Goals scored per game: Brentford 1.67 vs Nottingham Forest 0.67 — leans Brentford
- Goals allowed per game: Brentford 1.33 vs Nottingham Forest 1.17 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans Brentford
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Brentford.
- Table rank: Brentford 6 vs Nottingham Forest 18 — leans Brentford
- Points: Brentford 11 vs Nottingham Forest 6 — leans Brentford
- Goal difference: Brentford 5 vs Nottingham Forest -4 — leans Brentford
- Points per game in this competition: Brentford 1.17 vs Nottingham Forest 0.83 — leans Brentford
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Brentford 1.67 vs Nottingham Forest 0.67 — leans Brentford
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Brentford 1.33 vs Nottingham Forest 1.17 — leans Nottingham Forest
Shots and expected goals — leans Nottingham Forest
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Nottingham Forest.
- Expected goals for: Brentford 1.20 vs Nottingham Forest 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Brentford 1.20 vs Nottingham Forest 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Brentford 4.2 vs Nottingham Forest 6.6 — leans Nottingham Forest
- Shots on target for: Brentford 1.5 vs Nottingham Forest 1.3 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans Nottingham Forest
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Nottingham Forest.
- Days of rest: Brentford 6 vs Nottingham Forest 8 — leans Nottingham Forest
- Listed injuries: Brentford 0 vs Nottingham Forest 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — roughly even
Elo, streaks, and venue splits do not clearly separate Nottingham Forest and Brentford.
- Elo: Brentford 1563 vs Nottingham Forest 1506 — leans Brentford
- Win streak: Brentford 0 vs Nottingham Forest 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Brentford 1 vs Nottingham Forest 1 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Brentford 0.25 vs Nottingham Forest 0.42 — leans Nottingham Forest
Head-to-head — leans Nottingham Forest
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Nottingham Forest.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Brentford 0.33 vs Nottingham Forest 0.50 — leans Nottingham Forest
- Goals per meeting: Brentford 1.17 vs Nottingham Forest 1.67 — leans Nottingham Forest
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Nottingham Forest +280 | Draw +285 | Brentford +106 | O/U 2.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.