Feeling ClutchMonza vs Bologna
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — Serie A Prediction & Pick
Bologna 59% to win
Home win 59%, draw 21%, away win 20%. That lean is driven mainly by elo and form.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Bologna (11 edges vs 3 edges for Monza).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Bologna
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Bologna.
- Win rate: Bologna 0.33 vs Monza 0.25 — leans Bologna
- Points per game: Bologna 1.33 vs Monza 0.83 — leans Bologna
- Goals scored per game: Bologna 1.25 vs Monza 1.50 — leans Monza
- Goals allowed per game: Bologna 1.25 vs Monza 2.33 — leans Bologna
- Goal difference per game: Bologna 0.00 vs Monza -0.83 — leans Bologna
Short-term form (last 5 games) — roughly even
Short-term form is roughly even between Monza and Bologna.
- Win rate: Bologna 0.33 vs Monza 0.33 — roughly even
- Points per game: Bologna 1.33 vs Monza 1.17 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Bologna 1.33 vs Monza 2.00 — leans Monza
- Goals allowed per game: Bologna 1.33 vs Monza 1.83 — leans Bologna
Table and competition — leans Bologna
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Bologna.
- Table rank: Bologna 13 vs Monza 15 — roughly even
- Points: Bologna 8 vs Monza 7 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Bologna -2 vs Monza -3 — roughly even
- Points per game in this competition: Bologna 1.33 vs Monza 1.17 — leans Bologna
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Bologna 1.33 vs Monza 2.00 — leans Monza
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Bologna 1.33 vs Monza 1.83 — leans Bologna
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: Bologna 1.20 vs Monza 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Bologna 1.20 vs Monza 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Bologna 3.5 vs Monza 4.2 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Bologna 1.2 vs Monza 1.8 — roughly even
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Monza and Bologna.
- Days of rest: Bologna 7 vs Monza 8 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Bologna 0 vs Monza 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Bologna
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Bologna.
- Elo: Bologna 1549 vs Monza 1362 — leans Bologna
- Win streak: Bologna 1 vs Monza 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Bologna 1 vs Monza 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Bologna 0.17 vs Monza 0.08 — leans Bologna
Head-to-head — leans Bologna
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Bologna.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Bologna 0.50 vs Monza 0.17 — leans Bologna
- Goals per meeting: Bologna 1.17 vs Monza 0.67 — leans Bologna
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Monza +379 | Draw +292 | Bologna -123 | O/U 2.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.