Feeling ClutchLeeds vs Bournemouth
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — Premier League Prediction & Pick
Bournemouth 55% to win
Home win 55%, draw 24%, away win 21%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Bournemouth (9 edges vs 5 edges for Leeds).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — roughly even
Recent form over the last ten games looks similar for Leeds and Bournemouth.
- Win rate: Bournemouth 0.33 vs Leeds 0.33 — roughly even
- Points per game: Bournemouth 1.42 vs Leeds 1.50 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Bournemouth 1.50 vs Leeds 1.17 — leans Bournemouth
- Goals allowed per game: Bournemouth 1.25 vs Leeds 0.92 — leans Leeds
- Goal difference per game: Bournemouth 0.25 vs Leeds 0.25 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Bournemouth
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Bournemouth.
- Win rate: Bournemouth 0.33 vs Leeds 0.17 — leans Bournemouth
- Points per game: Bournemouth 1.33 vs Leeds 1.17 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Bournemouth 1.67 vs Leeds 1.17 — leans Bournemouth
- Goals allowed per game: Bournemouth 1.67 vs Leeds 0.83 — leans Leeds
Table and competition — leans Leeds
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Leeds.
- Table rank: Bournemouth 13 vs Leeds 7 — leans Leeds
- Points: Bournemouth 9 vs Leeds 11 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Bournemouth -1 vs Leeds 3 — leans Leeds
- Points per game in this competition: Bournemouth 1.33 vs Leeds 1.17 — leans Bournemouth
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Bournemouth 1.67 vs Leeds 1.17 — leans Bournemouth
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Bournemouth 1.67 vs Leeds 0.83 — leans Leeds
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: Bournemouth 1.20 vs Leeds 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Bournemouth 1.20 vs Leeds 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Bournemouth 4.8 vs Leeds 5.2 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Bournemouth 1.3 vs Leeds 1.8 — roughly even
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Leeds and Bournemouth.
- Days of rest: Bournemouth 6 vs Leeds 6 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Bournemouth 0 vs Leeds 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Bournemouth
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Bournemouth.
- Elo: Bournemouth 1587 vs Leeds 1523 — leans Bournemouth
- Win streak: Bournemouth 2 vs Leeds 0 — leans Bournemouth
- Unbeaten streak: Bournemouth 2 vs Leeds 1 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Bournemouth 0.25 vs Leeds 0.17 — leans Bournemouth
Head-to-head — leans Bournemouth
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Bournemouth.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Bournemouth 0.25 vs Leeds 0.25 — roughly even
- Goals per meeting: Bournemouth 2.75 vs Leeds 2.25 — leans Bournemouth
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Leeds +285 | Draw +260 | Bournemouth +116 | O/U 2.5 (Matchbook)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.