Feeling ClutchLe Mans vs Estac Troyes
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — Ligue 1 Prediction & Pick
Le Mans 44% to win
Home win 30%, draw 26%, away win 44%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Le Mans (13 edges vs 0 edges for Estac Troyes).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Le Mans
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Le Mans.
- Win rate: Estac Troyes 0.08 vs Le Mans 0.12 — roughly even
- Points per game: Estac Troyes 0.58 vs Le Mans 0.88 — leans Le Mans
- Goals scored per game: Estac Troyes 0.67 vs Le Mans 1.38 — leans Le Mans
- Goals allowed per game: Estac Troyes 2.00 vs Le Mans 2.00 — roughly even
- Goal difference per game: Estac Troyes -1.33 vs Le Mans -0.62 — leans Le Mans
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Le Mans
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Le Mans.
- Win rate: Estac Troyes 0.00 vs Le Mans 0.17 — leans Le Mans
- Points per game: Estac Troyes 0.17 vs Le Mans 1.00 — leans Le Mans
- Goals scored per game: Estac Troyes 0.50 vs Le Mans 1.17 — leans Le Mans
- Goals allowed per game: Estac Troyes 2.50 vs Le Mans 1.83 — leans Le Mans
Table and competition — leans Le Mans
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Le Mans.
- Table rank: Estac Troyes 17 vs Le Mans 15 — roughly even
- Points: Estac Troyes 5 vs Le Mans 7 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Estac Troyes -11 vs Le Mans -5 — leans Le Mans
- Points per game in this competition: Estac Troyes 0.17 vs Le Mans 1.00 — leans Le Mans
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Estac Troyes 0.50 vs Le Mans 1.17 — leans Le Mans
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Estac Troyes 2.50 vs Le Mans 1.83 — leans Le Mans
Shots and expected goals — leans Le Mans
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Le Mans.
- Expected goals for: Estac Troyes 1.20 vs Le Mans 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Estac Troyes 1.20 vs Le Mans 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Estac Troyes 4.5 vs Le Mans 5.5 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Estac Troyes 0.9 vs Le Mans 1.6 — leans Le Mans
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Le Mans and Estac Troyes.
- Days of rest: Estac Troyes 6 vs Le Mans 6 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Estac Troyes 0 vs Le Mans 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Le Mans
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Le Mans.
- Elo: Estac Troyes 1367 vs Le Mans 1491 — leans Le Mans
- Win streak: Estac Troyes 0 vs Le Mans 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Estac Troyes 1 vs Le Mans 1 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Estac Troyes 0.00 vs Le Mans 0.00 — roughly even
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Le Mans +213 | Draw +260 | Estac Troyes +139 | O/U 2.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.