Feeling ClutchFulham vs Aston Villa
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — Premier League Prediction & Pick
Aston Villa 63% to win
Home win 63%, draw 20%, away win 16%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo. Standings pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Aston Villa (18 edges vs 1 edge for Fulham).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Aston Villa
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Aston Villa.
- Win rate: Aston Villa 0.58 vs Fulham 0.25 — leans Aston Villa
- Points per game: Aston Villa 1.92 vs Fulham 1.00 — leans Aston Villa
- Goals scored per game: Aston Villa 1.92 vs Fulham 0.92 — leans Aston Villa
- Goals allowed per game: Aston Villa 1.33 vs Fulham 1.25 — roughly even
- Goal difference per game: Aston Villa 0.58 vs Fulham -0.33 — leans Aston Villa
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Aston Villa
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Aston Villa.
- Win rate: Aston Villa 0.83 vs Fulham 0.33 — leans Aston Villa
- Points per game: Aston Villa 2.67 vs Fulham 1.33 — leans Aston Villa
- Goals scored per game: Aston Villa 2.83 vs Fulham 1.00 — leans Aston Villa
- Goals allowed per game: Aston Villa 1.00 vs Fulham 1.00 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans Aston Villa
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Aston Villa.
- Table rank: Aston Villa 9 vs Fulham 15 — leans Aston Villa
- Points: Aston Villa 11 vs Fulham 8 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Aston Villa -3 vs Fulham -2 — roughly even
- Points per game in this competition: Aston Villa 1.83 vs Fulham 1.33 — leans Aston Villa
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Aston Villa 1.50 vs Fulham 1.00 — leans Aston Villa
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Aston Villa 1.17 vs Fulham 1.00 — leans Fulham
Shots and expected goals — leans Aston Villa
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Aston Villa.
- Expected goals for: Aston Villa 1.20 vs Fulham 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Aston Villa 1.20 vs Fulham 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Aston Villa 8.2 vs Fulham 4.6 — leans Aston Villa
- Shots on target for: Aston Villa 3.2 vs Fulham 1.7 — leans Aston Villa
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Fulham and Aston Villa.
- Days of rest: Aston Villa 7 vs Fulham 7 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Aston Villa 0 vs Fulham 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Aston Villa
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Aston Villa.
- Elo: Aston Villa 1644 vs Fulham 1519 — leans Aston Villa
- Win streak: Aston Villa 4 vs Fulham 2 — leans Aston Villa
- Unbeaten streak: Aston Villa 5 vs Fulham 2 — leans Aston Villa
- Home/away split win rate: Aston Villa 0.50 vs Fulham 0.17 — leans Aston Villa
Head-to-head — leans Aston Villa
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Aston Villa.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Aston Villa 0.83 vs Fulham 0.17 — leans Aston Villa
- Goals per meeting: Aston Villa 2.00 vs Fulham 0.83 — leans Aston Villa
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Fulham +275 | Draw +280 | Aston Villa +110 | O/U 2.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.